he road to the 98th Academy Awards, culminating on March 15th, has been blown wide open. What was once predicted to be a coronation for Paul Thomas Anderson’s sweeping epic “One Battle After Another“ has transformed overnight into one of the most exciting head-to-head battles in recent Oscar history, thanks to the historic power of Ryan Coogler’s vampire blockbuster “Sinners“. This year’s nominations, announced on January 22nd, reflect an Academy in transition—increasingly global, diverse, and thrillingly unpredictable.
The Record Breaker: “Sinners” Storms the Gates
The defining story of nomination morning is the sheer, staggering dominance of “Sinners.” Ryan Coogler’s genre-defying film didn’t just lead the pack; it made history, shattering the Oscar record by securing a jaw-dropping 16 nominations. This surpasses the previous benchmark of 14 nods held by classics like All About Eve, Titanic, and La La Land, and puts it one ahead of its main rival, “One Battle After Another,” which earned a formidable 13.
This nomination haul is a testament to the film’s across-the-board appeal, resonating with nearly every branch of the Academy. The film’s success also marks several historic milestones for representation:
- Ryan Coogler becomes only the third Black filmmaker nominated in a single year for producing, directing, and screenwriting.
- Autumn Durald Arkapaw is the first woman of color nominated for Best Cinematography.
- Ten Black artists are nominated for their work on the film, tying the record set by Judas and the Black Messiah (2021).
- Zinzi Coogler made history as the first Filipina producer nominated for Best Picture.
The Top Tier: A Nail-Biting Best Picture Race
The race for Hollywood’s top prize is now a classic duel between a revered auteur and a culturally potent phenomenon. Here are the key contenders:
While “One Battle After Another” was the presumptive favorite for months, winning key precursors like the Golden Globe for Best Comedy/Musical and the Critics’ Choice Award, its path is no longer clear. History shows the Academy can pivot to crown a “timely and urgent drama” (like Moonlight over La La Land) or a historic moment (like Parasite), a precedent that now benefits “Sinners”.
Acting Categories: Locks, Snubs, and Surprises
The individual races offer their own drama, marked by sure things and shocking omissions.
- Best Actress: Jessie Buckley (Hamnet) is the season’s undisputed frontrunner, positioned as “the most likely acting winner” and considered a “dead cert” for the trophy. The biggest shock here was the omission of Chase Infiniti (One Battle After Another), whose surprise snub is seen as a major vulnerability for her film’s Best Picture chances.
- Best Actor: This is a tight race. Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme), having won the Golden Globe and Critics’ Choice Award, has significant momentum. He faces stiff competition from Leonardo DiCaprio (One Battle After Another) and the recently surging Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent), who scored a surprise Globe win.
- Best Supporting Actress: Teyana Taylor (One Battle After Another) and Critics’ Choice winner Amy Madigan (Weapons) are strong. However, many are thrilled to see Wunmi Mosaku recognized for her pivotal role in “Sinners”.
- Best Supporting Actor: A stacked category where anyone but Paul Mescal (Hamnet) could plausibly win. It features veteran power (Stellan Skarsgård, Benicio Del Toro, Sean Penn) and a breakout turn by Jacob Elordi as The Creature in Frankenstein.
The Snubs and The Global Shift
No nomination morning is complete without surprises, and 2026 delivered some jaw-droppers.
The most talked-about shutout was the complete exclusion of the blockbuster musical sequel “Wicked: For Good.” Despite its predecessor’s success and huge box office, it earned zero nominations, with even star Ariana Grande missing out in Supporting Actress—a result some commentators greeted with a cheeky “We’re not upset about it”.
Beyond individual snubs, the nominations highlight a major structural shift in the Academy. A landmark four non-English language performances earned acting nods. The Best Picture list is exceptionally global, likely featuring three non-English films: “Sentimental Value” (Norway), “The Secret Agent” (Brazil), and “It Was Just an Accident” (Iran). This confirms the “increasingly international” makeup of the voting body.
Below-the-Line and New Categories
The crafts categories are dominated by the two titans, with “Sinners” and “One Battle After Another” facing off in Cinematography, Editing, Sound, and Score. Frankenstein is a crafts behemoth, predicted to win Production Design and Makeup & Hairstyling. Netflix’s animated phenomenon “KPop Demon Hunters” is the favorite for Animated Feature.
This year also features the second outing for the groundbreaking Best Casting category. Unsurprisingly, the complex ensembles of “Sinners” and “One Battle After Another” lead the field, a testament to the work of casting directors Francine Maisler and Cassandra Kulukundis.
The Final Prediction: Who Has the Edge?
As we look toward March 15th, the race is beautifully poised. “One Battle After Another” has the craftsmanship, the director’s narrative, and the epic scale the Academy often loves. But “Sinners” has the moment—the cultural relevance, the historic representation, the record-breaking nomination count, and the palpable energy of an industry ready to embrace a new paradigm.
In a year where the Academy has already shown it is “increasingly responsive to films that marry craft, ambition and cultural relevance,” the edge may now belong to the film that represents not just a cinematic achievement, but a cultural milestone. What once felt like an inevitable march for one film now feels, in the best way possible, “thrillingly uncertain”. The stage is set for an Oscar night that promises genuine suspense and, potentially, a historic outcome.
by BOB JONES