As the Major League Baseball season enters the final stretch beginning with Labor Day weekend, the playoff picture appears relatively stable. However, history suggests that significant shifts can still occur in the coming weeks.
The Seattle Mariners currently hold a three-game lead over the Kansas City Royals for the final American League wild card spot, while the New York Mets maintain a four-game advantage over the Cincinnati Reds for the National League’s final postseason berth.
This marks only the fifth time since the wild card era began in 1995 that the teams occupying the final playoff position in each league held at least a three-game lead by August 28th, excluding the abbreviated 2020 pandemic season.
The remaining schedule appears favorable for the current leaders. The Mariners face opponents with a combined .479 winning percentage, while the Mets’ remaining opponents have a .517 winning percentage. Meanwhile, the Reds face the third-most difficult schedule (.528 opponent winning percentage) and the Royals the eighth-most challenging (.513).
Despite these advantages, baseball’s final weeks often produce unexpected developments. Throughout the wild card era, only three seasons have concluded without any team climbing into playoff position after August 28th. Notably, fifteen teams have reached the postseason after trailing by three or more games on this date, including both the Mets and Detroit Tigers last season.
Historical precedents suggest comebacks remain possible. The 1997 San Francisco Giants, despite being five games back on August 28th, won the NL West. The 2011 Tampa Bay Rays overcame a 6.5-game deficit with an 18-12 finish, surpassing the collapsing Boston Red Sox on the season’s final day. In 2013, Cleveland erased a four-game wild card deficit with a 21-9 closing stretch to host the play-in game.
The most remarkable comeback belongs to the 1995 Mariners, who erased a 9.5-game deficit against the California Angels before winning a one-game playoff for the AL West title. That same season, the New York Yankees overcame a 4.5-game wild card deficit by surpassing five teams to reach the postseason.
While expanded playoffs have reduced Cinderella opportunities, four teams currently outside playoff position maintain .500 or better records: the Reds, Royals, Texas Rangers, and Cleveland Guardians.
This unusual season, where only the Colorado Rockies have distinctly underperformed (though they need just five more wins to avoid joining the 1962 Mets and last year’s White Sox as modern teams with 120 losses), suggests that even modest winning streaks could alter the playoff landscape.
Accordingly, the San Francisco Giants warrant attention. Despite a recent 7-19 slump, they’ve won five straight games—the longest active streak in the National League—to reach 66-68, just two games below .500. As the 1995 Mariners and Yankees demonstrated three decades ago, unexpected contenders can emerge in the season’s final weeks.