With a recent 12 months earlier than us, ’tis the season to look forward at what issues we could look ahead to over the subsequent 12 months and which issues could befall us on the earth of music.
1. Possible consolidation throughout the streaming music enterprise
We’ve all heard of the Big Four of streaming music: Spotify, Apple Music, YouTube and Amazon Music. You could have encountered Deezer, Tidal, Napster and Qobuz. We can throw iHeartRadio, Bandcamp, and SoundCloud into the combo. But what about 8Tracks, Boomplay, Jango, LiveOne, Joox, JioSaavn, Patari, KKBox and Hoopla? Those are streaming music providers as nicely.
Some survive due to their particular concentrate on particular areas of the world — China, South Asia and the Middle East, for instance — however it’s a must to surprise in regards to the monetary viability of the non-Big Four. Given the weirdness of music licensing and the razor-thin margins, how lengthy can these different platforms maintain out? Don’t be shocked if we hear of strategic partnerships, buyouts and shutdowns in 2025.
2. Netflix will launch a music streaming division
Just as Bob Dylan wrote “That he not busy being born is busy dying,” from 1965’s It’s Alright, Ma (I’m Only Bleeding), firms that aren’t busy rising danger dying, too. Netflix is already monstrous, with almost 300 million subscribers throughout 190 international locations. How does the corporate continue to grow to maintain shareholders joyful? It’s already reduce funding in unique video programming, one thing that frees up money for moving into the music streaming recreation.
Think about it. Netflix already has all of the infrastructure in place. It has tons of tech expertise. Pretty a lot each new good TV has an choice for Netflix. And in relation to the entire rigamarole of licensing tracks, do you assume labels/publishers would say no to Netflix? This chance has to maintain Spotify up at evening.
3. AI will proceed to form music in unexpected methods
This is a gimme, after all. Artificial intelligence is getting higher and simpler to make use of each week. Here are a few attainable instructions.
At some level, fidgeting with AI and music goes to be so easy that each one the youngsters are going to be doing it. I can see a development the place individuals create their very own music utilizing AI after which use these hyper-personalized bespoke compositions as on-line forex, sharing it by way of platforms like TikTok. This will create an entire new ecosystem with out stars and with out report labels.
Meanwhile, look ahead to report labels to get deeper in mattress with AI corporations, creating licensing offers for coaching fashions utilizing materials of their catalogues. We’ve already seen a number of makes an attempt at creating digital AI pop stars, though none have actually damaged by but. It’s solely a matter of time earlier than one does.
And for slightly further income, artists will begin licensing their voices, successfully cloning themselves, to different creators who will then provide you with new AI-generated songs, ensuing within the subsequent degree of collaborative songwriting.
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4. Vinyl gross sales will surpass these of CDs in Canada
CDs nonetheless rule in relation to the bodily format wars, but it surely’s a dropping battle. With 2024 gross sales down 12 per cent from a 12 months in the past, there’s no signal that CDs will rebound in any significant method. At the identical time, vinyl gross sales in 2024 had been up almost 27 per cent from 2023. At some level over the subsequent 12 months, the development traces will cross and new vinyl will outsell new CDs for the primary time because the early ’90s. In reality, for those who consider the gross sales of used vinyl (indie report shops, report reveals, on-line), vinyl already outsells and outgrosses CDs on this nation.
5. Mainstream music will proceed to devolve into a distinct segment
When we had a restricted provide of latest music to select from and it was all delivered by a few cultural gatekeepers (labels, radio, report shops, music magazines and video channels), it was straightforward for big swaths of the inhabitants to conform to assist a small variety of artists. That mannequin has been damaged by streaming and now everybody curates their very own private music experiences from the 120 million-ish songs obtainable for streaming. That’s difficult by the tsunami of latest tracks being added, which is estimated at round 110,000 per day. We can by no means, ever run out of music to take heed to — and we’ll take heed to what we would like, not what the gatekeepers inform us to.
Music has no centre anymore. Technology has fractured the outdated methods of listening and it’s unimaginable for artists to scale in the best way they used to. Yes, Taylor Swift is big, however her music reaches an outlined and finite viewers. Just check out the Spotify Top 50 and inform me what number of of these songs/artists you acknowledge. Heck, ask any non-Swiftie to call the titles of 5 songs they usually’ll battle. This isn’t a shot in opposition to Tay-Tay or anybody else; it’s merely the truth of the planet having a lot music to select from on a person degree.
Meanwhile, mainstream media will proceed to be besotted with a tiny slice of pop acts, attempting to persuade the world that everybody is listening to this music. The fact is we’re off in our personal little worlds. Smaller acts who tour relentlessly shall be the place the true motion and innovation is.
6. Older music will proceed to flourish as a result of it’s cheaper
The main labels assume they’ll do enterprise within the digital world similar to they used to after they had been promoting items of plastic. Because breaking new artists is more durable, extra unpredictable and dearer than ever, it’s tempting for labels to maintain mining their catalogues. Old songs have lengthy been paid for and the prices for re-issues, particular editions and field units are virtually nothing whereas providing excessive margins.
So what’s ripe for exploitation subsequent? The early 2000s. Emo is already again (cf. My Chemical Romance’s 2025 stadium tour that’s already bought out). We’ve seen indicators of life with the unique Britney Spears/Backstreet Boys/NSYNC crowd. Pop-punk? Could be time for its trip on the nostalgia prepare. And how about retro EDM?
I’ve seen all this referred to as “Y2K Energy.” Demographics simply may assist this.
7. Small venues will proceed to battle
COVID-19 hit small music venues onerous. Those that survived are having a tough time as a result of a) so many younger individuals by no means developed the behavior of going out to see dwell music regularly; b) youthful generations don’t drink as a lot after they do exit, which is the income for small golf equipment; and c) for those who’re splurging $1,000 on one or two huge live shows a 12 months, there’s nothing left to pay for a string of gigs that price $25.
8. Festivals will proceed to battle
Unless your title is Glastonbury, you’re frightened in regards to the future. More than 50 festivals had been cancelled within the U.Okay. final 12 months whereas huge occasions like Coachella and Bonarroo did not promote out. Promoters face exponentially larger prices, a big a part of which is insurance coverage. Another is the current development of massive festivals reserving acts from a dozen or extra totally different genres, hoping {that a} shotgun method will appeal to extra punters. This is anathema to an viewers that customizes every little thing about their music consumption. You know what’s going to do nicely? Smaller, extra centered festivals.
9. People will proceed to rediscover correct high-fidelity music
There had been a few generations the place the crappy audio high quality of MP3s was ok. That’s slowly altering as streamers like Apple Music up their recreation to high-resolution digital information. (Compare streams of the identical tune on Spotify and Apple Music. It’s no contest.) More individuals are shopping for standalone high-end stereo techniques on which to play their vinyl and CDs. And if the iPhone ever begins supporting FLAC information, look out. Music will lastly sound nearly as good because it did in 1984.
10. Heritage acts will proceed to die
Another gimme. Actuarial tables say lots of the artists we’ve identified our complete lives are coming to the tip. How are we going to deal with the data that these individuals who have equipped music to us our complete lives (and past!) are now not alive? If you need to expertise them dwell, don’t wait. Do it now.