Not very a few years come alongside the place we’d be speaking a couple of presumptive winner for the album of the 12 months Grammy 10 months from the date that award is given out. Neither do instances come alongside fairly often the place we’d essentially be contemplating somebody a possible shoo-in for a serious award when that individual has famously been nominated for it 4 instances and misplaced each time.
But by no means earlier than has there been a 12 months that has introduced us a “Cowboy Carter,” and so all bets are off, in relation to inserting our bets very, very early. If wagering this far out isn’t utterly secure, it nonetheless appears unimaginable — barring completely unexpected circumstances — that essentially the most talked-about album of Beyoncé‘s profession can be something however the front-runner because the months depend right down to early 2025.
Prognosticating the Grammys this early is certain to result in some pearl-clutching. But Oscar-watchers really feel no such hesitance in relation to the calendar, and none would have thought that Academy Awards hypothesis was past the pale when “Barbenheimer” fever struck final summer time. Well, guess what? “Oppenheimer” got here out when there have been nonetheless 5 and a half months left within the Oscars’ calendar 12 months, however apparent is clear. And for the reason that Grammys’ eligibility interval ends sooner than most individuals notice it does, in September 2024, we’re really solely six months away from the cutoff — about as far-off as Christopher Nolan’s film was from its goalposts when individuals felt assured about calling it a frontrunner.
The Grammys are often far much less predictable than the Oscars, so it will really feel silly to consider making a name this early except we had the musical equal of an “Oppenheimer” on our fingers.
It seems like we do.
If you doubt this, perhaps you have to widen your social media circle a bit, if not your studying habits. “Cowboy Carter” has turn into immediately beloved throughout the board in music tastemaker circles, in a manner not often seen with any album lately or a long time. There are exceptions, with some very sensible individuals who have cheap doubts concerning the album’s greatness, however even most of those “wait a second” takes usually acknowledge and admire the recordings’s scope and ambition. Most critics, pop followers, individuals within the business and even (pointedly) individuals in insider circles who’re a fan of nation music — Beyoncé’s very loosely focused style this time round — are falling over each other with reward. Variety‘s review already called it the most talked-about album of the 21st century, before it came out. If that talk had turned out sour once people got a listen, we’d be having a special dialogue, however “Cowboy Carter” has been not simply the speak of the city however a uncommon level of near-unanimity this present day. (With room to permit for sleek dissent from Bey-naysayers, we are able to all hope.)
Before speaking any extra concerning the album pulling via within the clinch on the power of its personal greatness, let’s additionally take into account: What might be moderately standing in its manner?
Not a lot. The most evident challenger is likely to be seen because the one different album within the the rest of this 12 months that may even stand unmistakably as a serious cultural occasion: Taylor Swift’s “The Tortured Poets Department,” due simply three weeks after “Cowboy Carter” got here out. And on a purely blockbuster degree, Swift will definitely out-stream and out-sell Beyoncé, based mostly on her current observe file of million-unit opening weeks in an period the place that’s actually unachievable for every other artist. Swift is on a roll with the Grammys, with critics and clearly with most of the people. But that might be the factor that permits Beyoncé to lastly advance within the album of the 12 months class, after a number of misses. After “Midnights” simply received that trophy this 12 months, giving Swift a file variety of private triumphs within the class, “Tortured Poets Department” might develop into as sturdy as that album, “1989” and “Fearless” mixed and nonetheless even most hardcore Swifties is likely to be saying: “It’s OK if Beyoncé gets it this time. Really.”
Who else is a candidate? When it involves album tasks which might be seen as combining business power, essential enchantment and water-cooler-chatter essentiality, there aren’t any such trifold opponents which might be already out, and none that we learn about on the way in which. Of course, we stay within the age of shock drops, however it’s exhausting to consider very many artists who is likely to be even holding again a shock behemoth, simply out of view.
Of the album releases which have already come out this 12 months, the artists that stand wonderful photographs at an album of the 12 months nomination embrace Ariana Grande and Kacey Musgraves… and never many others. Forthcoming albums from previous nominees Dua Lipa and Haim are additionally more likely to enter the dialog. But after we discuss a number of the bigger-selling releases of 2024 to date, just like the Future/Metro Boomin collaboration, which is promoting effectively however fared modestly with critics, the query is extra whether or not they’ll get a nomination in November, not whether or not they have a shot at taking the lead. The zeitgeist at giant is a tough factor to rattle, and never many musical tasks are doing it proper now.
As for potential releases, nobody is aware of for positive but whether or not Billie Eilish’s third album will fall earlier than or after the Sept 30 cutoff date. SZA has promised us an all-new album referred to as “Lana”… but in addition simply mentioned that she plans to place out a deluxe model of her final album previous to that, so it’s seeming much less and certain she would get round to placing out two main album tasks earlier than the top of September. Speaking of Lanas, Lana Del Rey has her personal transfer into nation on the way in which, tentatively set for launch simply earlier than the eligibility cutoff date. It can be enjoyable to see two putatively nation albums by pop superstars compete in opposition to each other for the highest Grammy, and that would occur… but when it does, it’s not a stretch to foretell that Beyoncé will enter the voting with extra wind in her sails, irrespective of how good the Del Rey album is. Someone else might shock us, however in need of an Adele or a Kendrick Lamar dropping a shock album that occurs to be the album of their profession, it’s exhausting to think about who might usurp what we’re seeing within the present second.
So, sure, it’s type of simple to get to forecasting a Beyoncé win partly via a technique of elimination. And additionally via the “if not now for her, when?” query (although, clearly, that one alone has not pushed her over earlier than).
But it nonetheless feels higher to foretell a “Cowboy Carter” gold ribbon on the premise of its personal stature, as one thing all people has to have a say about within the 12 months of our Lord 2024 — with the chatter among the many many individuals who’ve really listened to it coming in at about 95% delighted.
How will she fare in different classes? It’s secure to say that Beyoncé will go from being the artist who has received essentially the most Grammys in historical past to being… effectively, the artist who has received a bunch greater than that. “Cowboy Carter” is being categorised as a rustic album for DSP functions by her individuals, so regardless that she has mentioned “it’s not a country album, it’s a Beyoncé album,” her staff will in all probability enter it in key nation classes, since “Beyoncé” stays to be acknowledged as its personal class by the Grammys.
Will it’s accepted there, when Grammy committees have beforehand, contentiously shifted Kacey Musgraves’ “Star Crossed” from nation to pop, in opposition to her needs? Almost assuredly; are you able to think about the hell to pay if the Recording Academy tells the world that “Cowboy Carter” isn’t actually nation — even when it’s a stylistic omnibus? The album will compete for nation album, and win; “Texas Hold ‘Em” will compete for country song, and probably win. But that still leaves room for songs off the album that skew in different directions to be entered in other categories; “Spaghetti” could be entered in hip-hop, her duet with Miley Cyrus could be entered as a pop duo-or-group song, and an R&B field candidate is likely in there somewhere, too. Meanwhile, one of the leading roots-based artists, Allison Russell, has tweeted that this is an Americana album, not a country album — which, in some overall sense, is true, given how huge an umbrella that term encompasses — so it would be completely be within Beyoncé’s rights to enter “16 Carriages” or certainly one of a number of different attainable tracks in that subject, on prime of her traction all over the place else.
But the general-field large three is the place the gold awaits this undertaking, so the one actual suspense is which songs out of a dozen or extra nice decisions Beyoncé will enter for file of the 12 months and tune of the 12 months. Those are tougher to say are shoo-ins, provided that that is really concerning the dominance of the gathering as a complete, not any of its particular person items. But AOTY? It’s hers to lose.
And it’ll be the Recording Academy’s achieve if it lastly will get to acknowledge an album that just about everybody watching can agree felt like a cultural signpost. “Cowboy Carter” makes much more statements than it’s initially being given credit score for — not simply concerning the historical past of Black girls in nation, which might be sufficient, however concerning the broad enlargement and inclusion of being the musical omnivore that Beyoncé is proving herself to be. It’ll be within the custom of wins like these for “Songs in the Key of Life,” “Graceland,” “The Miseducation of Lauryn Hill” (the final time a Black girl received it, however who’s counting) and others — landmark data that felt culture-shifting, in addition to simply being grooves a nation might get beneath.
When it involves the confluence of circumstances affecting its possibilities, maybe screenwriter Larry Karaszewski mentioned it finest, in a social media thread, when he mentioned: “I’ve never heard an album more conscientiously designed to win Album of the Year. If there’s such a thing as Grammy Bait, this is it… a little country, R&B, pop, old school, new school… some legends giving their thumbs up, even a Beatles cover.” Lest the reverse-engineering angle sound cynical, he added: “But, that being said — it’s a great friggin’ record that actually deserves to win Album of the Year.”
For Beyoncé herself, these Grammys clearly received’t be her first rodeo, however they’ll probably be her most rewarding.