As we get nearer to the one-quarter mark of the twenty first century, it might appear that issues are altering quicker than ever earlier than, particularly within the areas of tradition and media. I cope with music for a dwelling and even I can’t sustain with all the pieces that’s occurring. But I believe I can see issues clearly sufficient to make some predictions and observations for music in 2024.
1. Music will grow to be much more fragmented
In the olden days, we obtained all our music in measured doses by document labels, radio, music magazines, document shops and video channels. Today, all the pieces ever recorded is offered to us on a regular basis. There’s nobody place — just like the radio or A lotMusic — the place all of us go to listen to/see the artists that everybody is speaking about. Consensus on what’s “good” and who’s “big” has utterly damaged down. There’s no centre to music anymore. With the exception of some acts, “big” has by no means been smaller.
Few acts unite us as they as soon as did. There was a time once we all ran to the document retailer to get that one album everybody was speaking about. We handed over chilly, exhausting money, making a monetary funding within the artist. Today, there’s a lot music to select from for zero money format. We spend all our time idly hitting the “skip” button. We’re all overwhelmed. Music has grow to be devalued. Today’s stars are smaller than these from days of yore.
By method of proof, American radio chart analyst Guy Zapoleon identified that 2023 had fewer “consensus hits” — songs that had been featured on no less than 50 per cent of America’s prime 40 stations — than any earlier 12 months. How many? Just 18, down from 28 in 2020.
Meanwhile, there appears to be a rising disenchantment with present music. About 75 per cent of all music consumed at this time is older than two years. That’s not going to alter.
2. The algorithms will proceed to distort music
Recommendation algorithms was important for working our method by music discovery. Now, although, they appear to be pushing us to issues which can be simply monetized as a substitute of fulfilling our wants. If you are feeling that you just’re being served up materials that you just don’t care about, you’re not alone.
Meanwhile, bot farms, pretend streams, poor enforcement/moderation and AI clones are simply going to make issues much more complicated and irritating.
3. TikTok could possibly be much more of a game-changer in 2024
TikTok has been one of many world’s hottest apps for a few years now. The firm realizes that continued progress will rely on deeper integration of licensed music into the platform. Once it has TikTok Music, its streaming service, up and operating in additional nations, look ahead to some seismic modifications in how the business reacts.
4. Music streamers must consolidate — finally
I’ve been untimely with this prediction earlier than, however it’s obtained to occur someday. Right now, there are too many platforms chasing subscribers for a quickly maturing enterprise mannequin. Why did Spotify CEO Daniel Ek announce main layoffs simply earlier than Christmas? Because he and his board see tough occasions forward. Spotify goes into lean-and-mean mode. Meanwhile, all streamers stay hamstrung by the licensing offers underneath which they have to work. As quickly as extra money is available in, extra money goes out in lockstep. There’s no alternative for efficiencies and synergies that can improve margins.
Spotify has a market cap of virtually US$40 billion and has the reserves to proceed to play the lengthy recreation. Apple Music will survive, because of the truth that the guardian firm is value over US$3 trillion. Anything Alphabet does (YouTube, YouTube Music) can also be secure. Amazon Music has Jeff Bezos. But what about Tidal, Qobuz, Deezer, Napster and everybody else? How lengthy can they keep unbiased?
5. The language of standard music will proceed to evolve
It was that in the event you needed a world hit, you needed to sing in English. Not anymore. Thanks to the widespread availability of low-cost streaming music, songs are free to stream anyplace they need. Latin music has exploded. Okay-pop is in all places. It’s solely a matter of time earlier than we see international hits rising from India, China and Africa.
6. The AI-and-music panic will subside
Right now, everybody sees AI as a menace to humanity in music. But we’ve seen this film earlier than with the rise of synthesizers (“They’re killing jobs for musicians!”), drum machines (“Human drummers will become extinct!”) and sampling (“All music will end up just being recycled bits!”). It’ll take just a few extra years to kind out all of the legalities and ethics of this new know-how, however we’ll quickly marvel how all of us did with out AI. Just like we did with synths, drum machines and sampling.
7. We will lose extra beloved musicians
With so a lot of our legends of their 70s and 80s, it’s only a matter of time. Prepare your self.
8. We will lastly have music that sounds nearly as good as what we had within the ’70s
A few generations have grown up on the inferior audio high quality of MP3s and their ilk. Convenient and moveable, sure. Good-sounding audio? No. But with the rise of latest tech (Dolby ATMOS, Sony 360, Apple Spatial Audio, Hi-Res Audio) we’re approaching an period the place music won’t solely sound higher than MP3s and different compressed codecs however higher than CDs. A couple of issues nonetheless should be labored out (correct decoding {hardware} on telephones, extra bandwidth to permit for wi-fi listening), however we’ve turned a nook in terms of getting again to correct high-fidelity music.
9. We could lastly say sufficient is sufficient to excessive ticket costs
Acts have been pushing exhausting to see how a lot followers are keen to pay to see a present. So far, although, followers haven’t reached the breaking level. Funflation — the thought of spending an increasing number of cash on enjoyable issues as a result of the world appears so loopy that going to a gig is a technique of dealing with one existential disaster after one other — can’t go on indefinitely. Once artists and promoters begin seeing rows and rows of empty seats, they’ll know that we’ve reached our restrict.
10. The Taylor Swift/Travis Kelce factor will finish badly
Talk a couple of advertising powerhouse. Kelce was already a star when he crossed paths with Tay-Tay, so when their relationship turned public, they turned a Richard Burton-Liz Taylor-style phenomenon.
Their tryst has been a win-win for everybody, together with the NFL, which has seen rankings in sure demos skyrocket. A large portion of the inhabitants is invested within the couple, however for the story to be full, it has to finish with a tragic breakup. More than one particular person has written that if the Kansas City Chiefs tank down the stretch and into the playoffs, Swift can be made right into a scapegoat by Chiefs followers for inflicting such a distraction. I’ve already seen her known as “Yoko” a variety of occasions. But simply consider the songs she’s going to get out of it!
That could find yourself being the beginning of the Tay-Tay backlash. You can’t grow to be as ubiquitous as Taylor Swift is now ceaselessly. At some level, individuals will start to tire of listening to and studying about her on daily basis. It received’t be the top of her, nevertheless. She’s confirmed far too savvy in terms of managing her profession and he or she’ll survive any downturn. But Taylormania as we all know it proper now will subside. That’ll be a pleasant break.
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Alan Cross is a broadcaster with Q107 and 102.1 the Edge and a commentator for Global News.
Subscribe to Alan’s Ongoing History of New Music Podcast now on Apple Podcast.
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