Halloween is over and Christmas season begins subsequent week at Walt Disney World. The worst crowds of the 12 months will quickly arrive, however proper now could be the calm earlier than the storm–the lull between holidays. This wait occasions report covers information for October and November 2023 (to date) at Magic Kingdom, EPCOT, Hollywood Studios, and Animal Kingdom, plus predictions for what to anticipate trying ahead.
To shortly recap the previous couple of months, August and September (minus the final week) largely marked a return to low season crowd ranges. Some followers who go to yearly throughout this time of 12 months reported “feels like” crowds that had been larger than they anticipated. Nevertheless, it was nonetheless the most effective stretch of the 12 months from the attitude of wait occasions, which had been about 30-32 minutes throughout all of Walt Disney World, on common.
The starting and finish of October had been comparatively gradual, however in between–Columbus Day and fall breaks–had Walt Disney World’s busiest week since Easter. The remainder of the center couple weeks of the month had been likewise busy, however that’s to be anticipated. The larger and extra attention-grabbing story was these slower weeks, which had been no worse than the August or September averages. This has now occurred for a few consecutive years and are beginning to appear like a return to how October was once over a decade in the past.
Before we get going, one factor we need to emphasize is that crowd ranges are going to vary over the course of the vacation season. It virtually feels silly to put in writing that due to course crowd ranges change. That’s the entire level! If wait occasions and attendance had been static, there could be no want for posts like this.
In a number of regards, crowd reporting is loads like climate forecasting. Do you all yell on the tv when your native meteorologist says that it’s going to be hotter within the prolonged forecast than it was final week? (“What do you mean the temperature is going up?! It was just nice and cool. MAKE UP YOUR MIND, WEATHERMAN!”) Actually, don’t reply that. Maybe I don’t need to know.
Suffice to say, there have been quite a lot of Facebook feedback in response to latest crowd stories which were, primarily, “make up your mind–are crowds low or high?!” There’s a subtext to this sentiment suggesting we’ve got some form of agenda in wanting Walt Disney World attendance to be excessive or low. I don’t completely blame folks for questioning this, as Disney crowds have (sadly) grow to be a element of the tradition wars. It’s very silly, however true.
With the exception of wanting decrease crowds once we are within the parks (for purely egocentric causes!), there’s no agenda right here. Our view is that Walt Disney World attendance is what it’s. No quantity of us discussing the subject–which we expect is an attention-grabbing one for numerous causes (particularly in a post-pent-up demand surroundings)–goes to vary something. Obviously, we’re not the arbiters of attendance statistics. Well, besides within the sense that all of us are provided that we collectively select when to go to (or not).
With that out of the best way, let’s flip to the wait occasions information–beginning with the same old asterisks. As at all times, this information shouldn’t be conclusive of attendance or in-park congestion. Additionally, body of reference is a serious problem.
Walt Disney World attendance has elevated by a number of million folks over the course of the final decade-plus by means of 2019. Then attendance plummeted for a year-plus, spiked on account of pent-up demand for two years, and is now coming again to actuality. So your particular person notion of crowds could differ significantly based mostly on whenever you final visited.
There are additionally a number of different variables that may influence “feels like” crowds, together with however not restricted to festivals at EPCOT, climate, visitor demographics, trip breakdowns, operational effectivity, wait occasions manipulation, and park working hours. This is only a partial checklist, and all of these are important variables proper now.
In brief, wait occasions are an imperfect measure of Walt Disney World’s uncooked attendance or crowds. Imperfect as they could be, wait occasions are nonetheless the greatest measure of crowds–and the one goal one. The various is counting on anecdotal observations, that are rather more flawed and incomplete.
It’s inconceivable for anybody to be in every single place without delay, and laborious to know whether or not you’re in a pocket of crowds, what effectivity points exist, and whether or not company are disproportionately doing sights or loitering about. Yada yada yada. See our 2023-2024 Walt Disney World Crowd Calendars for extra disclaimers in regards to the limitations, strengths, weaknesses, and so forth. of such a publish.
With that out of the best way, let’s dig into the information and have a look at Walt Disney World wait occasions. As at all times, all graphs and stats are courtesy of Thrill-Data.com:
We’ll begin with the month-to-month numbers for Walt Disney World as an entire. November is just barely busier than the autumn offseason…to date. Obviously, that can change.
As for October, it was busier than May, August or September–however that was to be anticipated. To our shock, October ended up having barely decrease wait occasions than each June and July. If you had been making predictions based mostly on final 12 months, that truly shouldn’t be a shock, as October was the least-busy of that trio of months. But October being slower than summer time is a comparatively new development…or the reemergence of an previous development, relying on the way you have a look at it.
Here’s the weekly wait occasions information for Walt Disney World.
The highest yellow line there’s Columbus Day and fall break, which was the busiest week since Easter. Wait occasions are down fairly considerably year-over-year as pent-up demand exhausts itself, however that week was nonetheless busy. In truth, don’t let the (gentle) inexperienced bars idiot you. Those are principally a results of robust comparisons, reasonably than low crowds in additional absolute phrases.
Nevertheless, wait occasions have dropped within the final couple of weeks.
We’re large on accountability right here, so it’s price admitting that we missed the mark with crowd predictions. Our checklist of the 10 Best and 10 Worst Weeks to Visit Walt Disney World in 2023 to 2025 consists of October 28 to November 11, 2023 on the ‘worst’ checklist. As you’ll be able to see, Halloween week was not unhealthy in any respect–it positively didn’t should be included on that checklist.
For our half, the commentary does say this: “Breaking it down a bit, the Halloween side of this usually is not as bad as people expect; by contrast, the Veterans Day end is typically much worse than expected. It’s advisable to avoid it all, if at all possible. We’ve been warning about Veterans Day crowds for years, as it has been almost on par with Thanksgiving some years.”
Halloween isn’t a really busy vacation at Walt Disney World, however it was slower than regular this 12 months. At least, as measured by wait occasions. In the following replace to that greatest/worst checklist, I’m going to take away Halloween, however I’m nonetheless hesitant to actively endorse it, no matter what the group ranges may counsel. It’s usually a well-liked vacation with locals (that means congestion not mirrored in wait occasions), particularly when the climate is sweet.
Above is a have a look at the each day numbers. Walt Disney World had been experiencing decrease attendance following the Columbus Day/Indigenous Peoples’ Day vacation weekend and fall break. However, that’s previous tense as a result of crowd ranges have been rising from their lows for the final a number of days.
The parks nonetheless aren’t busy, however that is attention-grabbing (I feel) as a result of wait occasions have elevated over the course of this weekend, which is not one thing we’ve been seeing this 12 months outdoors of vacation weeks. In a traditional 12 months, this might simply be defined by the Wine & Dine Half Marathon, however even runDisney occasions haven’t been transferring the needle as a lot on crowd ranges this 12 months.
It’s too early to say whether or not that is the beginning of a development, however we’ve been anticipating the slower Saturday and Sundays phenomenon to cease (or pause) through the vacation season. This is such a well-liked time of 12 months with locals and diehard Walt Disney World followers that it appears inconceivable for weekends to proceed being slower. Maybe that’s occurring. Maybe it’s runDisney. Maybe it’s early-arriving crowds for the Veterans Day and Jersey Week vacation breaks. I suppose we will see!
For park by park evaluation, we’ll begin with Magic Kingdom. Note a pause within the prickly porcupine impression for Party Season in the previous couple of days, which is (very clearly) attributable to there being no occasions. Mickey’s Not So Scary Halloween Party ended and Mickey’s Very Merry Christmas Party doesn’t begin for an additional few days. The means the sooner park closing time impacts crowd ranges is one thing we’ve lined at size, time and again. (See Least Crowded Late 2023 Days at Magic Kingdom for dates that we suggest doing MK.)
November 1 was the slowest day at Magic Kingdom in an extended, very long time. The above completely explains why. It was a MNSSHP day with a 6pm closing and the following a number of days all had a lot later closing occasions. So many guests made the very apparent and intuitive resolution of skipping Magic Kingdom on that day in favor of 1 with a 10pm or later closing time.
Very quickly, we’re going to see the “opposite” (sort of) of this occur. Party-shortened days which have crowd ranges of three/10 or 4/10 as a substitute of 1/10. This is because of rising crowd ranges throughout the board and fewer choices to keep away from MVMCP because it’ll happen on extra days of the week. The “good” information is that the non-party days will get even worse, making the celebration days comparatively extra enticing regardless of these larger crowd ranges.
Above are the particular trip averages for Magic Kingdom for November 2023 month-to-date.
Only a couple of sights with common wait occasions over an hour. That might sound unhealthy, however loads of waits on the decrease finish of the spectrum drag the common down fairly considerably. On days like this, Magic Kingdom could be very manageable even with out Lightning Lanes. Knock out Tomorrowland or Fantasyland throughout Early Entry, Adventureland and Frontierland at rope drop, and Seven Dwarfs Mine Train (and so forth.) proper earlier than park closing. Very doable!
Next up is Animal Kingdom.
Not a lot perception to supply right here. Animal Kingdom wait occasions just about mirror Walt Disney World as an entire. It’s at all times price mentioning that the park’s restricted trip roster buckles each time crowds are heavy, that means that these wait occasions can spiral uncontrolled if attendance retains creeping up. It’s the park with the largest vary between lows and highs.
Here are Animal Kingdom trip averages for the month. Both Pandora sights are eclipsing an hour, however that’s it. Still not horrible when you get previous the highest 4 sights.
Kilimanjaro Safaris falls to #4, behind the Mickey & Minnie meet and greet. Again, that is an extremely straightforward park with even a modicum of technique past arriving late and leaving early. You may get uninterested in listening to us state (and restate!) this, however the overwhelming majority of time, Genie+ is a whole waste of cash at Animal Kingdom. (Sorry not sorry, however I received’t shut up about that–we’re a client useful resource, firstly!)
Another factor about which I received’t shut up: Animal Kingdom is underrated at night time and now by means of the remainder of the 12 months, it’s formally open in evenings! (Daylight saving time followers, it’s our time!) We extremely suggest staying for evenings in DAK to benefit from the Tree of Life Awakenings, plus Pandora and the remainder of the park after darkish.
Our Animal Kingdom Afternoon Arrival Strategy is as soon as once more the perfect strategy for this park. Alternatively, Early Entry or rope drop are nice. Or, may we suggest Early Entry and twine drop adopted by a refreshing noon break adopted by night in Animal Kingdom? Even skipping a number of hours, you are able to do the whole park–some rides greater than as soon as!
Honestly, I don’t even know why I embrace EPCOT on this anymore. EPCOT had some inexperienced traces; it had some yellow traces. How did these traces correspond with congestion ranges? Your guess is pretty much as good as mine!
EPCOT is infamous for a divergence between “feels like” crowds/congestion and wait occasions, and that is solely going to worsen subsequent month with the top (?) of the Giant EPCOT Dirt Pit, debut of Luminous: Symphony of Us, and opening (?) of CommuniCore Hall. (Yes, we’ve got query marks round two of these issues, however all it’ll actually take is Luminous for EPCOT to see bigger crowds.)
World Showcase can also be worse on weekends resulting from day consuming, whereas evenings are busier for folks Park Hopping over to look at the fireworks. In brief, folks present up for issues aside from sights, in order that elevated attendance isn’t picked up by wait time information. We attempt to keep away from EPCOT on weekends throughout this time of 12 months, and that’s exactly why.
Average wait occasions for Frozen Ever After, Remy’s Ratatouille Adventure, and Test Track are all elevated. The new trip odor has already worn off Soarin’ Over California. (Guess folks hate oranges?)
Actually, I’d anticipate demand for Soarin’ to bounce again within the subsequent couple of months. Given the vacation season is a well-liked journey time for repeat Walt Disney World guests, we wouldn’t be shocked if OG Soarin’ surpasses Test Track.
Finally, there’s Disney’s Hollywood Studios.
Not a lot to say about this–similar to Animal Kingdom, the wait occasions at DHS roughly mirror Walt Disney World as an entire.
Above are ride-by-ride wait occasions for Disney’s Hollywood Studios this month.
These are the worst of any park, with 5 rides above 60 minutes. Note that this isn’t almost as unhealthy as final month, which had much more sights that had been at or above 80 minutes. Notably, not even Slinky Dog Dash or Star Wars: Rise of the Resistance are in triple-digit territory.
Turning to commentary, we don’t have loads so as to add. Wait occasions information by no means tells the complete story, and that’s undoubtedly true right here, too. Unfortunately, this was the primary month in a very long time once we didn’t spend any time at Walt Disney World (for apparent causes). As such, I don’t have any anecdotal or on-the-ground observations to share.
Really, there are solely two the reason why I even opted to do a crowd report. First, as a result of even I used to be shocked on the very low wait occasions information for October 28 to November 2, 2023. Even although Halloween isn’t a busy vacation, it’s not often this gradual. That’s newsworthy and likewise (doubtlessly) justifies adjusting 2024 crowd calendars for these dates.
Second, as a result of that is already beginning to change and it’s occurring over a weekend. Whether it’s resulting from runDisney or the early arrival of Jersey Week and Veterans’ Day vacation crowds (or a mixture of the 2) is inconceivable to say–however we should always have a reasonably good reply based mostly on whether or not crowds enhance or lower on Monday and Tuesday. (If they go up, it’s as a result of vacation; in the event that they go down, the busy weekend was resulting from runDisney.)
Ultimately, the final couple of weeks have been the calm crowds earlier than the vacation storm. November and December will virtually actually be the 2 busiest months of 2023, and that can begin someday this week–if it hasn’t already begun. Even with the lulls in every of these months–which incorporates Our Favorite Week of the Entire Year at Walt Disney World (During Christmas)–the excessive highs are sufficient to place November and December excessive.
As famous above, this week consists of each Jersey Week and Veterans’ Day, and can be busy because of this. It’s actually a query of whether or not the week begins out sturdy with excessive crowd ranges even on Monday and Tuesday (my guess is that it does!) or will get progressively busier heading into the weekend.
Regardless of what occurs this coming week, we’re hopeful that the next week (November 12-17, 2023) and the week after Thanksgiving (November 26 to December 2, 2023–you may even be capable of broaden that to November 25 to December 3) will see reprieves from the height season crowds. Those dates together with a scattering of others in December shouldn’t be horrible.
After the second full week of December 2023, all bets are off. Crowds received’t let up in any constant method till after winter faculty breaks finish within the second week of January 2024. If you’re questioning why Walt Disney World is rolling again so many insurance policies on January 9, 2024 as a substitute of New Year’s Day, that’s exactly why. That’s the following day of the low season at Walt Disney World!
Planning a Walt Disney World journey? Learn about inns on our Walt Disney World Hotels Reviews web page. For the place to eat, learn our Walt Disney World Restaurant Reviews. To lower your expenses on tickets or decide which kind to purchase, learn our Tips for Saving Money on Walt Disney World Tickets publish. Our What to Pack for Disney Trips publish takes a novel have a look at intelligent objects to take. For what to do and when to do it, our Walt Disney World Ride Guides will assist. For complete recommendation, the most effective place to start out is our Walt Disney World Trip Planning Guide for every part you want to know!
YOUR THOUGHTS
Thoughts on the Halloween and early November crowds at Walt Disney World? Predictions for the 2023 Christmas season? How unhealthy do you anticipate crowds to get for the guts of the vacation season? Thoughts on our forecast, evaluation, or anything? Do you agree or disagree with something in our report? Any questions we might help you reply? Hearing your suggestions–even whenever you disagree with us–is each attention-grabbing to us and useful to different readers, so please share your ideas under within the feedback!