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Will A Prolonged Writers’ Strike Be A Boon To The Struggling Indie Acquisitions Market?

May 3, 2023

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The Writers’ Strike has arrived, and Hollywood is breaking out right into a flop sweat about what might occur if it’s a protracted détente. The final work stoppage in 2007-2008 lasted 14 weeks and severely disrupted the filming of numerous episodic tv sequence, kiboshed a handful of films whereas others had been rushed into manufacturing with barely coherent scripts (“Quantum of Solace” being the traditional instance), and noticed the Golden Globes canceled (okay, perhaps it wasn’t all unhealthy).

Theatrical Is Back, Baby!
Fifteen years later, this strike is going on inside a completely totally different context. Not solely is the trade simply starting to economically get well from the blow of the pandemic, however extra crucially, streaming has exploded, and consequently, it has change into one of many key compensation points at play. Ironically, that is occurring as studios have returned from CinemaCon, the place they crowed concerning the worth of the theatrical enterprise, a sign that nobody (except for perhaps Netflix) has discovered what a profitable, standalone streaming mannequin appears like, at the same time as a lot because it has change into a pillar of the trade’s income stream.

“We believe in full windowing of the motion pictures. We do not want to do direct-to-streaming movies. We’re in no rush to bring the movie to Max,” Warner Bros. Discovery CEO David Zaslav pronounced, including, “When you open a movie in theaters, it has a whole stream of monetization. More importantly, it’s marketed. It builds a brand so when it does go to a streaming service; there’s a view that [the title] has a higher quality that benefits the streaming service.”

Meanwhile, Sony — the one main studio with out a streaming service — was extra way more candid. “For the past three years, as the punditocracy pissed on your business, we at Sony held fast. We were the only major studio devoted entirely to theatrical,” CEO Tom Rothman informed theater house owners. “We were sure in the conviction that movies in movie theaters couldn’t just survive, but triumph.”

So, hooray, Hollywood is again on the aspect of films in cinemas once more! The factor is, these pesky writers are answerable for creating the scripts that get these movies made. And with out them, the implications may very well be deeply felt.

The worst-case situation that few are speaking about simply but is that if this work stoppage is extended, many movies which can be in pre-production to shoot later this yr or in early 2024 might shut down altogether. Theatrical launch calendars might need to be adjusted, with some films deliberate for launch in This fall pushed to subsequent yr, leaving each studios and streamers alike scrambling to fill gaps of their calendars. However, Hollywood’s fear might flip right into a boon for indie gross sales brokers who’ve been struggling in a market that has gone icy chilly. Could the strike herald a mini-gold rush on the acquisitions entrance?

Acquisitions Are Back…Maybe?
To put it bluntly — the times of streamers and studios rolling into Sundance with barrels of cash to unfold round seems to be over. While Oscar-winner “Coda” was bought to Apple for an insane $25 million in 2021 (a Sundance document), that was actually the outlier exception that yr, with few main gross sales past that one. This truth was made fairly clear to “Emily The Criminal” star/producer Aubrey Plaza and director John Patton Ford after they premiered and shopped their buzzy, well-reviewed pic in Park City in 2022 (The Sundance field workplace hit an all-time low of $15 million in 2021 which doubtless didn’t assist).

“We didn’t have a big streamer come and try and swoop the movie away. I was shocked by that. I was like, ‘This is weird.’ You can’t do better than this movie, and we’re still not getting Amazon, Apple… they’re not knocking down the door,” Plaza informed Kim Masters on The Business podcast.

The similar scenario performed out this yr, as many took discover of simply how few offers had been occurring on the slopes and within the chalets of Park City. While there have been a few splashy buys — $20 million greenback hauls by Netflix and AppleTV+ for “Fair Play” and “Flora & Son,” respectively — it’s a bit stunning what number of high-profile films didn’t get scooped till effectively after the pageant.

“Eileen” (Neon) starring Thomasin McKenzie and Anne Hathaway; “Magazine Dreams” (Searchlight) starring Jonathan Majors; and U.S. Dramatic and World Cinema Dramatic Audience Award winners “The Persian Version” and “Shayda” (each going to Sony Pictures Classics) are among the many titles that needed to wait till the lights in Utah dimmed earlier than discovering a house.

The scenario seems to be much more dire if you check out the dealmaking that didn’t occur at SXSW. Many movies that rolled into Austin as sizzling acquisition choices have nonetheless gone unclaimed. And we’re speaking films with precise star energy concerned corresponding to “Americana” with Sydney Sweeney, “I Used To Be Funny” starring Rachel Sennott, “Late Bloomers” toplined by Karen Gillan, the Jake Johnson starring and directed “Self Reliance,” and “You Sing Loud, I Sing Louder” with Ewan McGregor.

Delays, Regrets, and Opportunities
For the second, nobody appears to be making a transfer, however you may wager accountants are working the numbers, and executives are whiteboarding every kind of eventualities. But there’s the query if there’s even cash to be spent in an trade already within the midst of large layoffs and belt-tightening.

Executives at streaming providers are actually beneath better scrutiny for his or her budgets and tv improvement slates. “People are just desperate,” David H. Steinberg, a author and showrunner, informed Vanity Fair. “I’ve been doing this for over 20 years, and I’ve never been in a situation where people are like, ‘Oh, no one’s buying anything right now.’ We just can’t sell.”

However, the flip aspect to that equation within the midst of an extended work stoppage, when Hollywood might be starved for programming, is that maybe the price of buying one movie for the value (or doubtless much less) than the price range for a single episode of a excessive profile/excessive idea TV present, will all of a sudden look extra attention-grabbing?

Studios and streamers could also be dealing with the implications — unintended or not — of previous selections rather more shortly than they anticipated. AppleTV+ is presently struggling by way of the troubled manufacturing of the second season of their hit sequence “Severance,” which goes to be considerably delayed. And that is on prime of their different sequence that will need to halt. Of all of the streamers, AppleTV+ nonetheless has the slimmest catalog, so will they be movies to fill the hole?

Meanwhile, for all of Warners’ David Zaslav’s newfound dedication to theatrical, you must marvel if he’s quietly kicking himself for mothballing “Batgirl” and “Scooby-Doo! Holiday Hunt” final yr when he figured they had been higher served as tax write-offs than, uh, films. If the strike goes lengthy, these might’ve been two titles that might simply slot right into a rearranged calendar. (There’s additionally no phrase about what’s occurring with Warners’ “Salem’s Lot,” which debuted a trailer final yr at CinemaCon, however has since seen two scheduled launch dates roll by with nothing to indicate for it).

Perhaps greatest positioned to trip out a number of months of manufacturing stoppage are Netflix and Amazon, who doubtless have loads of content material backlogged, however even they might want to feed the stream if their hit exhibits or deliberate films begin getting delayed by months or canceled altogether.

If there’s something sure concerning the writers’ strike and the way the trade will trip it out, it’s how unpredictable it is going to be. Maybe I’ll have written 1000 phrases for naught if a deal is shortly reached, however it doesn’t matter what occurs within the days and weeks forward, hopefully, this serves as a reminder that there are many films on the market simply ready to discover a house, strike or not.

Lastly, as writers ourselves, solidarity with the WGA.

Will A Prolonged Writers’ Strike Be A Boon To The Struggling Indie Acquisitions Market?

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