8 NBA Playoffs overreactions from begin of each first spherical sequence

NBA Playoffs sequence will not be strictly decided by the primary sport, however groups that win Game 1 traditionally have an enormous edge in advancing. In 2018, the NBA put out knowledge that stated groups that win the primary sport of a best-of-seven sequence win the sequence 76.6 p.c of the time. In the primary spherical, groups that win Game 1 win the sequence 79.7 p.c of the time, in accordance with Land of Basketball.

Every sequence within the 2023 NBA Playoffs is now underway, and we’ve already seen some large surprises. The No. 6 seed Golden State Warriors had been favored to beat the No. 3 seed Sacramento Kings of their first spherical sequence, nevertheless it was the Kings who took dwelling a W in Game 1. The Phoenix Suns have been among the many largest favorites to win the West, however they dropped Game 1 to a Los Angeles Clippers group enjoying with out Paul George. The No. 7 seed Lakers additionally took Game 1 from the No. 2 seed Memphis Grizzlies after Ja Morant’s scary wrist damage, whereas the No. 8 seed Miami Heat pulled off the upset over the No. 1 seed Milwaukee Bucks after Giannis Antetokounmpo’s again damage.

We knew these playoffs had been going to be large open, however the Game 1 outcomes had been nonetheless surprising to see. Here’s our largest overreactions after watching the primary sport of each playoff sequence.

The Bucks are in deep trouble

After shedding Game 1 to Miami, the pure response is perhaps to say that this was only a blip on the radar. However, there are a number of the reason why this Bucks group could possibly be in very deep bother. NBA insider Shams Charania reviews that Bucks’ star ahead Giannis Antetokounmpo could possibly be out there for Wednesday’s sport, but when he’s at something lower than 100%, it might imply bother for the Bucks.

In addition, the Heat is perhaps discovering their stroke from deep. All season, the primary theme was how the Heat offense has taken a step again, particularly when taking pictures from deep. Against Milwaukee in Game 1, they shot 60% from deep and from the sphere. Of course, Giannis modifications the mathematics on the taking pictures from the sphere, but when the Heat proceed to shoot like that from deep, it modifications the mathematics on all the things.

Plus, that is Miami we’re speaking about. They at all times are going to be a troublesome out, no matter how they performed within the common season. If Giannis isn’t 100%, this critical might go lots longer than the Bucks needed. —J.P. Acosta

The Celtics bought their wake-up name early, and that ought to terrify the East

An straightforward overreaction from Game 1 of the Celtics-Hawks sequence is that Boston goes to roll to a straightforward sequence win. The Celtics’ 112-99 win on Saturday may naturally lead one to that conclusion. However, the true takeaway is that this: Boston is simply getting began.

Head coach Joe Mazzulla discovered loads of flaws within the second-half, after the Celtics constructed a powerful 30-point lead at halftime, the franchise’s largest first-half lead within the postseason because the 1985 NBA Finals. After taking pictures 60% within the first half, Boston shot 34.9% in the course of the second half, and the Celtics had been outrebounded by Atlanta over the ultimate two quarters as nicely, 27 to 26.

Boston nonetheless held on for the win, however Mazzulla sees room for enchancment: “ I just thought we lost our offensive purpose,” Mazzulla stated of the second half. “Playing passive offense instead of just keeping it moving, being aggressive and maintaining that level of pace that we had in the first half.”

“It’s the playoffs,” Jayson Tatum stated following the win. “They’re a good team. We expect them to go on runs. A lot of it was self-inflicted: turnovers and missed layups and things like that. But we responded and obviously there’s a lot of things that we can learn from and I’m sure the Hawks feel the same way. So it’s all about adjustments and learning from Game 1. There’s a lot of games left.”

If a group shoots 35% within the second half, will get outrebounded, and “holds on” for a 29-point win? That’s a superb signal. So too is the concept that the Celtics bought their “wake up call” early, in a blowout win.

That ought to terrify the remainder of the Eastern Conference. — Mark Schofield

I simply hope the Nets have a superb time

This one time in 2009 I made a decision to enter a Street Fighter IV match for enjoyable. I had no enterprise coming into a 128-player match, however discovered myself randomly profitable with El Fuerte and made all of it the way in which to the semi-finals. Then I bought dumpstered by somebody who knew what they had been doing.

The Nets are the plucky underdogs now, who critically don’t belong within the NBA Playoffs. Let’s simply be actual. This group was 32-20 earlier than buying and selling Kyrie Irving and Kevin Durant. They then went 13-17 to shut out the 12 months and coasted to the sixth seed due to the outcomes that they had early on. Hell, the Charlotte Hornets went 12-15 over the identical stretch.

I do know that is imagined to be overreactions, nevertheless it doesn’t really feel like one. The Nets don’t stand a rattling likelihood in opposition to the 76ers. Look at each their rosters, go on, open a tab a do a fast search. On the one hand you will have Joel Embiid, James Harden and Tobias Harris. On the opposite you’ve bought an island of misfit toys with one of many Nets’ best-known gamers now having the nickname “Dinshittie.”

The Sixers didn’t even play very nicely in sport one, and nonetheless destroyed Brooklyn by 20 factors. If Embiid and Harden have nearer to their signature video games they may blow out the Nets by 40.

Sixers in 3. The Nets cry and don’t flip as much as Game 4. — James Dator

In a wing-driven league, the Cleveland Cavaliers do not need any

After a really aggressive 101-97 loss, there in all probability shouldn’t be that many overreactions concerning the Cavaliers probabilities on this sequence proper? They bought destroyed on the glass 51-38 regardless of Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen grabbing 11 and 14 rebounds, respectively. Mobley was 4/13 from the sphere and Darius Garland had 1 help to go together with 5 turnovers, however neither of these issues will in all probability occur once more.

So why do I believe the Cavs are completed after one sport? Well, it’s as a result of the problem that they’ve had all common season has change into magnified within the postseason. This group, for all of the expertise that Mitchell, Garland, Mobley and Allen possess, have completely nothing on the wing that may assist them win this sequence.

The New York Knicks utterly ignored Isaac Okoro defensively and begged him to shoot the basketball. Dean Wade was a -14 in SEVEN MINUTES in a sport they misplaced by 4 factors. Caris LeVert was 1-7 and in addition a -14 in his 18 minutes. The Cavs could also be compelled to play Lamar Stevens the remainder of the sequence as a result of they merely do not need some other alternative.

It’s solely the primary sport, and a win in Game 2 will in all probability make me overlook about all of this, but when the Cavs lose this sequence we’re going to spend all offseason discussing who do they should commerce between Darius Garland and Jarrett Allen to get a wing ( you, Brandon Ingram) that may really assist them win basketball video games within the Spring and Summer. — Jacolby Hart

The Nuggets’ second-half ‘swoon’ was nothing to fret about

No one actually believed within the Denver Nuggets coming into the NBA Playoffs. Despite being the No. 1 seed within the West, Denver solely had the third finest odds to achieve the NBA Finals in their very own convention, behind the No. 4 seed Suns and the No. 6 seed Warriors. Part of that was as a result of the Nuggets had early playoff exits the final two years (in equity, their second finest participant Jamal Murray was injured each instances). Part of it might have additionally been as a result of the group went 12-11 after the All-Star break this 12 months.

If the Nuggets’ Game 1 victory over the Minnesota Timberwolves was any indication, Denver was merely saving their legs for playoff time on the finish of the common season. The Nuggets beat the Wolves, 109-80, in a press release win to start out their postseason run.

The Nuggets’ protection, which was their largest concern coming into the playoffs after ending solely No. 15 within the common season, seemed dominant in opposition to the Wolves. Nikola Jokic managed the sport as a playmaker and rebounder even when it wasn’t his finest night time scoring the ball. Murray seemed electrical with 24 factors, nevertheless it was a balanced scoring effort from your entire rotation: six Denver gamers scored at the least 13 factors within the win.

The Nuggets are going to be simply positive. As I wrote in our rating submit (the place I had Denver at No. 2 however the group positioned them because the fifth most definitely group to win the title), doubt the Nuggets at your personal peril. — Ricky O’Donnell

The Grizzlies’ accidents could also be an excessive amount of to bear

The Grizzlies had been already banged up even earlier than they began their run within the 2023 NBA Playoffs. Memphis entered the postseason with out injured beginning heart Steven Adams, and knew they’d be lacking key reserve Brandon Clarke for the remainder of the season due to an Achilles tear.

Memphis’ damage points bought even worse in Game 1 when famous person guard Ja Morant went down with a wrist damage. He didn’t sound like he was in good spirits after the sport:

The Lakers took a 1-0 sequence lead with Morant out for the ultimate six minutes. A No. 7 seed just like the Lakers is just not imagined to beat a No. 2 seed like Memphis, however this doesn’t really feel like a typical 2-7 matchup. For one, LA reloaded its roster midseason with a implausible commerce deadline that jettisoned Russell Westbrook and restocked the roster with succesful function gamers round LeBron James and Anthony Davis. The Grizzlies additionally aren’t the Grizzlies with out Adams’ unimaginable offensive rebounding, Clarke’s athletic defensive playmaking, and naturally Morant’s supernova offensive skill.

Here’s hoping Morant will get wholesome shortly and doesn’t miss a beat. Turn off accidents. — Ricky O’Donnell

The Kings’ offense will translate to playoff basketball

The most effective offense in NBA historical past belongs to … the 2022-2023 Sacramento Kings. The Kings’ 119.4 offensive score is the best in league historical past, and helped finish Sacramento’s 16-year playoff drought this season, which was the longest throughout the 4 main skilled sports activities. Sacramento put up so many factors due to each area and tempo: lead guard De’Aaron Fox is perhaps the league’s speediest ball handler, and Sacramento surrounded him with shooters to complete No. 5 within the league in three-point charge.

There was some motive to imagine the Kings’ offense wouldn’t be as potent within the playoffs. Historically, the sport slows down within the postseason, and simple transition buckets are tougher to return by. Throw in a primary spherical sequence with the defending champion Warriors, and most of the people anticipated the Kings’ playoff breakthrough to be quick lived.

Instead, Sacramento blitzed the Warriors for a 126-123 win in Game 1. Fox had 38 factors and thrived in crunch-time, as he has all 12 months. Malik Monk added 32 factors off the bench, together with going 14-of-14 from the foul line. Meanwhile, Kevin Huerter and Keegan Murray went a mixed 0-for-8 from three once they have been the group’s two most constant shooters all 12 months.

Sacramento goes to place up factors. If the Warriors wish to win the sequence, they’ll want their offense to step up much more than their protection. The Kings’ protection is their large level of concern — particularly their rim safety. Well, the Warriors bombed 50 threes in Game 1 and barely attacked the paint.

Defense may win championships, however traditionally nice offense beats nice protection within the NBA. The Kings’ offense-first assault goes to be simply positive. — Ricky O’Donnell

The Suns’ lack of continuity shouldn’t be discounted

The Suns had been the betting favorites within the Western Conference coming into the NBA Playoffs although the group had barely performed collectively. Since swinging an enormous deal for Kevin Durant on the commerce deadline, Phoenix has solely performed eight video games with KD due to accidents. Yes, Phoenix went unbeaten in that stretch, nevertheless it was principally in opposition to uninspiring competitors.

Championship groups often aren’t nonetheless trying to find their id when the playoffs begin, however that’s precisely what Phoenix is doing. The Suns’ expertise is overwhelming on paper, however discovering cohesion stays a piece in progress. The Clippers beat the Suns, 115-110, to open the sequence on Sunday regardless of LA star Paul George being dominated out for the sequence with damage.

Durant had 27 factors however solely took 15 pictures — the fifth most on the group. Phoenix continues to be determining how you can get him pictures within the movement of the offense on a group with two different stars in Devin Booker and Chris Paul who additionally wish to play with the ball of their arms. Phoenix’s depth seemed good in Game 1 due to an important outing by Torrey Craig, however that’s nonetheless a priority shifting ahead. Ayton’s lack of ability to rebound at a excessive degree, and out-play Clippers heart Ivica Zubac, can be a priority.

Championship groups within the NBA are often shaped by going by the trials and tribulations of the common season. The Suns didn’t get that likelihood as a result of they traded for Durant so late within the season, after which needed to cope with him being out and in of the lineup with accidents. It’s not panic time for the Suns but, however this sequence was by no means imagined to be this tough. — Ricky O’Donnell