Playoff predictions are way more easy than individuals make them out to be, particularly within the first spherical — at the least if latest historical past is any indication.
Over the final eight years — because the Stephen Curry-led Golden State Warriors began a 3-point taking pictures explosion that has modified tempo of play within the league — top-three seeds advance out of the primary spherical at a extremely dependable charge. Yet we spend a lot time and power within the days main as much as the playoffs diving again in and seeing how the common season video games and matchups went down.
Those matchups usually result in braze predictions of upsets and believing that the decrease seed has probability just because they fared effectively within the common season or had one tactical benefit that would make a collection shut.
I needed to check the speculation that the common season matchups have been really pretty irrelevant in predicting collection winners. Those video games may inform us, I believed, that there are key matchups or stylistic challenges for a way the collection could possibly be performed. But the actual query is whether or not underdog groups who fare effectively within the common season have any type of benefit coming into the playoffs.
Instead of breaking it down throughout the board, it’s prudent to go by first-round matchup traditionally. The disparity of expertise and success between high seeds and eight-seeds is way totally different than a No. 4 vs. No. 5 matchup. Perhaps a deep dive into every collection within the post-3-point explosion period may reveal one thing new about find out how to predict the winners in a tightly-contested 2023 playoff setting.
No. 1 seed vs. No. 8 seed matchups
Top seeds: 16-0 since 2015
It’s been over a decade since a top-seeded staff in both convention has didn’t make the second spherical of the NBA Playoffs. The final eight seed to upend their foe was the 2012 Philadelphia 76ers, who capitalized on the torn ACL of Derrick Rose suffered in Game 1 of that collection. Plain and easy, these upsets not often occur — particularly during the last decade the place the dominance of the Golden State Warriors and LeBron James’ groups within the East was clear.
With as giant of a niche in win totals as there tends to be between these first-round adversaries, common season matchups don’t are usually an indicator of a lot. Only one eight-seed (the 2016 Detroit Pistons) really gained their common season matchup with their opponent (the LeBron Cavaliers). Even in that common season footnote of historical past there are asterisks. One of the Pistons victories was the common season finale, the place the Cavaliers sat all their vital gamers. Cleveland went on to unceremoniously sweep Detroit within the playoffs.
Instead of predicting a collection victory, maybe we will use the common season outcomes to see how lengthy the collection will go. That’s additionally a tricky pull, as no eight-seed has even pressured a Game 7 on this timeframe. Only 1 / 4 of the collection went to a Game 6. Two of them featured a good common season cut up of head-to-head contests. Translation: the one approach a collection sometimes will get previous 5 video games is that if the decrease seed gained two common season video games.
The Milwaukee Bucks cut up their common season collection with each the Chicago Bulls and Miami Heat. Either approach the ultimate play-in recreation goes, historical past would counsel that the underdog can steal at the least one recreation. Every latest staff to win two common season video games in opposition to their top-seeded foe has pushed the collection to 6. Out West, the Denver Nuggets cut up 2-2 with the Minnesota Timberwolves however took down Oklahoma City thrice out of 4. Similarly, historical past would point out that we’re unlikely to see a sweep.
No. 2 vs. No. 7 matchups
Top seeds: 16-0 since 2015
Similar to these 1 vs. 8 matchups within the first spherical, the two vs. 7 collection haven’t given a ton of parity. The final time a two-seed was dropped within the opening collection was in 2010 when the Dallas Mavericks misplaced to the San Antonio Spurs.
We’re getting barely nearer to parity, although. Six of the final sixteen matchups between the two and seven have seen even 2-2 splits within the common season collection. While that’s a excessive mark, it didn’t translate to playoff success. This is the place bettors and followers must take the common season collection with a grain of salt. Only three 2 vs. 7 collection have even gone to a seventh recreation, and no staff was in a position to win that seventh recreation on the street over. In reality, no seven or eight seed has gained a first-round do-or-die recreation on the street because the NBA expanded to a best-of-seven collection again in 2003.
With the Boston Celtics sweeping Atlanta 3-0 within the common season, a Hawks upset would actually buck each historic development. Where issues get fascinating is with the Memphis Grizzlies and Los Angeles Lakers collection. The Lakers gained the common season 2-1, making them the primary seven-seed to earn that distinction in over a decade. The Lakers have been probably the greatest groups after the All-Star Break within the league, and the Grizzlies are very banged up of their frontcourt. If there may be one collection that would go in opposition to the historic dominance of two-seeds within the first spherical, it’s more likely to be this one.
No. 3 seed vs. No. 6 seed matchups
Top seeds: 15-1 since 2015
One of probably the most shocking findings of doing this analysis was that just one six-seed has pulled off a first-round upset during the last eight years. That collection was in 2018 when the New Orleans Pelicans thrashed the Portland Trail Blazers, sweeping them after splitting the common season 2-2.
Despite that lack of success within the playoffs, the common season collection’ have been far more even between these opponents. Five of the final sixteen 3 vs. 6 collection featured groups who every gained two matchups in opposition to one another earlier than the playoffs. Three decrease seeds even gained these common season collection, and one in all them (the 2019 Oklahoma City Thunder) even swept their season collection with Portland.
Strangely, that common season success has been the alternative of a optimistic signal for decrease seeds. None of these three groups who gained head-to-head common season matchups with a three-seed went on to even power a Game 6! Those 2019 Thunder misplaced to Portland in 5 video games, and again in 2020, the Philadelphia 76ers bought swept by the Boston Celtics after taking three of 4 in that pandemic-altered season.
This 12 months’s 3 vs. 6 matchup out West options loads of intrigue. Golden State, the six-seed out West, gained the season collection with Sacramento 3-1. Their expertise could possibly be a significant component on this collection, because the defending champions not often discover themselves because the visiting staff within the first spherical.
No. seed 4 vs. No. 5 seed matchups
Top seeds: 8-6 since 2015
When predicting the 4 vs. 5 collection, you might be in all probability higher off simply flipping a coin. Teams have been very evenly cut up during the last eight years, and the dearth of separation between them within the standings is primarily answerable for such parity. This 12 months, just one recreation separates the Los Angeles Clippers and Phoenix Suns within the 4 vs. 5 matchup our West.
Strangely, solely two of the final sixteen showdowns featured groups who cut up their common season collection. This 12 months’s Clippers and Suns matchup was additionally even, with each groups successful two, together with Los Angeles beating Phoenix within the common season finale final weekend.
Most of the time, these collection function one staff who wins the battle head-to-head over the primary 82 video games.
Those groups are 5-9 within the first spherical.
If historical past is any indication, it’s really not a wise wager to foretell the winner of a 4 vs. 5 collection just because they fared higher head-to-head within the common season. That could possibly be excellent news this 12 months for the Cleveland Cavaliers, who misplaced three of 4 to the New York Knicks this 12 months.
The deeper dives into the info reveal that only a few tendencies from the common season really exist. Teams to brush their common season collection went 2-2 within the first spherical, with the newest loss being the Knicks in 2021, who beat the Hawks all thrice earlier than getting run out of the Garden by Trae Young within the playoffs. Over the final eight years, 4 4 vs. 5 matchups have gone to a seventh recreation. The staff who gained the common season matchup ended up dropping all 4 Game 7 alternatives.
As we get to playoff predictions, a lot evaluation is centered round dissecting the common season matchups. In the primary spherical, that usually doesn’t present an excessive amount of worth. If seeding tendencies are any indication, the primary spherical is just about all chalk from the highest seeds and a toss-up within the 4 vs. 5 matchup. With the parity within the Western Conference and accidents to gamers on the Memphis Grizzlies, this 12 months could possibly be the exception to the rule in that regard. However, it’s a reasonably protected wager that the highest seeds will transfer on with out a lot trouble — even when they didn’t fare very effectively within the common season.