Members of the Paraguayan opposition usually evaluate the ruling Colorado Party to Mexico’s Partido Revolucionario Institucional (PRI), which held energy constantly for 71 years from 1929 to 2000.
The right-wing Colorado Party dominated for 61 years, 34 of them throughout a dictatorship-until a quick interruption from 2008 to 2013, since when the celebration has all the time been in energy.
Although the PRI and the Colorado Party technically gained on the poll field throughout their dominance, their energy and affect in any respect ranges of presidency and within the media allowed them to eradicate potential challengers simply.
However, the Colorado celebration’s dominance might falter within the April 30 normal election, marked by anti-corruption, anti-incumbent and pro-China sentiment.
The election marketing campaign might be vital for Paraguayan and South American overseas coverage.
Under new management, Paraguay might change its diplomatic allegiance from Taiwan to China and must renegotiate a key vitality treaty with Brazil.
The two main presidential candidates in Paraguayan polls are Santiago Peña of the Colorado Party, a former finance minister, and Efraín Alegre of the centrist Authentic Radical Liberal Party, a longtime congressman.
In the final presidential election, 4 pollsters gave the Colorado Party candidate a lead of greater than fifteen factors over his precise margin.
“Anything can happen in a month and a half. Everything is open,” Paraguayan sociologist Camilo Soares tweeted final week in regards to the April elections.
Alegre has benefited from corruption allegations in opposition to senior Colorado Party leaders, together with present Vice President Hugo Velázquez and former President Horacio Cartes, who have been positioned on the US sanctions record final 12 months for “systemic corruption.”
Incumbent President Mario Abdo Benítez is unpopular, which might additionally profit Alegre. (Abdo Benítez, who belongs to the Colorado Party, can’t be re-elected on account of time period limits).
Alegre has acquired assist for his marketing campaign promise to acknowledge China as an alternative of Taiwan diplomatically.
Allegiance to Taiwan has lengthy been overseas coverage orthodoxy in Paraguay-a results of the Colorado Party’s reflexive anti-communism and the affect that place has introduced the nation within the United States.
Today, Paraguay is the final South American nation to keep up full diplomatic relations with Taipei.
However, some imagine Paraguay’s pro-Taiwan convictions could also be waning.
The value of sustaining relations with Taiwan turned extra obvious throughout the Covid-19 pandemic when China prioritized pleasant international locations in a global race to produce vaccines.
“Many [Paraguayan] neighboring countries received Chinese vaccines and were much more advanced in their vaccination programs,” mentioned coverage analyst Julieta Heduvan.
Taiwan ultimately negotiated with India to produce Covaxin vaccines to Paraguay, however the contract was canceled due to high quality management issues.
Paraguay additionally agreed to direct provide contracts with drug producers beneath the worldwide Covax initiative.
Paraguay’s influential farmers and ranchers have referred to as on authorities within the landlocked South American nation to enhance relations with China, saying they’re lacking out on potential income, Heduvan, and Juan Manuel Harán write in ReporteAsia.
Other agricultural exporting international locations in Latin America have seen financial boosts from gross sales to China in recent times.
Just final week, Honduras introduced it will change its diplomatic allegiance from Taiwan to China, primarily for financial causes.
Paraguay’s subsequent president should make one other vital overseas coverage resolution nearer to residence.
In August, Paraguay and Brazil will renegotiate a treaty governing how the binational Itaipu hydroelectric plant on the border between the 2 international locations might be shared and bought.
The Itaipu Dam is the second-largest hydroelectric dam on this planet.
When dam development started within the Seventies, the 2 international locations agreed to change into co-owners of the challenge if Brazil paid a bigger share of the upfront prices and Paraguay paid them again to Brazil over time.
Paraguay would promote the unconsumed electrical energy to Brazil at a managed worth relatively than promoting it to different prospects on the market worth.
The 1973 contract was for 50 years and can expire in August.
Many Paraguayans imagine they received a awful deal and see the deliberate renegotiation as an opportunity to set issues proper.
Paraguay consumes solely about eight p.c of the electrical energy generated by Itaipu.
If the nation might promote its electrical energy on the open market relatively than at price-controlled charges, it might imply a brand new windfall of public income.
The boosted public coffers might be used for initiatives akin to elevated social spending and efforts to impress the nation’s financial system’s transportation and different emissions-intensive sectors.
Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, conscious of the sensitivity of Paraguayan grievances associated to Itaipu – and the truth that Brazil dangers dropping its favorable vitality costs secured by the settlement – traveled to western Paraná final week to attend a ceremony honoring the dam’s new director and mentioned he would assist a brand new deal that “takes into account the respect that Brazil must have for its ally, our dear Paraguay.”
Vuyk is a part of a civil society group urging presidential candidates to outline their positions on Itaipu higher.
“It will be a central issue in the next government, and therefore a debate and then the participation of all citizens will be crucial.” Peña and Alegre wish to guarantee affordable electrical energy costs for Paraguayans however haven’t offered additional particulars.
When a leftist politician briefly held Paraguay’s presidency prior to now, he negotiated an settlement with Brazil that elevated the quantity Brazil paid for Paraguayan vitality.
While the result of the Paraguayan election might result in crucial overseas coverage modifications, the continuity within the nation’s historical past urges warning.
“While the fundamentals of this election should lead to an opposition victory, betting against the Colorado party is never a smart move,” wrote James Bosworth of Latin America Risk Report final week.