Sports

Sweet 16 groups, ranked by possibilities to win March Madness in 2023 males’s NCAA match

March 20, 2023

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The first weekend of March Madness produces some gorgeous outcomes and dramatic moments yearly, and the beginning of the 2023 males’s NCAA match was no completely different. We noticed a No. 16 seed beat a No. 1 seed for under second time ever when Fairleigh Dickinson did the unthinkable vs. Purdue. We noticed a No. 15 seed beat a No. 2 seed for the third 12 months in a row with Princeton knocking off Arizona, and the Tigers’ run isn’t finished but. While we didn’t have a real buzzer-beater, JP Pegues’ three-pointer within the remaining seconds to assist Furman upset Virginia was shut sufficient.

We’re now left with 16 groups and eight superior video games when the match resumes on Thursday to begin the second weekend. With half of the No. 1 seeds and half the No. 2 seeds already eradicated, it actually seems like nearly anybody can win the entire thing.

Before March Madness picks up once more, right here’s how we’d rank the 16 workforce nonetheless standing primarily based on their probabilities of successful the nationwide title. Each of our 5 writers ranked the groups 1-16, and the ultimate rankings have been decided by the averages.

No. 16 Princeton Tigers (15-seed)

Princeton made some historical past with Saturday’s win over Missouri to advance to the Sweet 16. The Tigers turned the primary Ivy League workforce to make it to the Sweet 16 since Cornell again in 2010, they usually turned simply the fourth No. 15 seed in NCAA males’s match historical past to advance to the Sweet 16, becoming a member of Florida Gulf Coast, Oral Roberts, and St. Peter’s. While their win over Arizona on Thursday was a tight-knit affair, Saturday’s win over Missouri confirmed that Princeton can take management of a recreation. The Tigers constructed a 33-19 lead within the first half, and after Missouri closed the hole earlier than halftime, a 10-0 run within the second half noticed Princeton draw back for good. What maybe stood out most was the work the Ivy League champions did on the glass. Princeton gained the battle of second-chance factors 19-2 whereas out-rebounding Missouri 44-30. That benefit for Princeton included a 16-8 benefit in offensive rebounding. Caden Pierce led the way in which for Princeton with a career-high 16 boards, together with seven on the offensive finish. That benefit might be examined within the Sweet 16, as each Baylor and Creighton can also be stable on the glass. The Bluejays ranked twelfth within the nation in OR% on protection, forward of the Tigers. — Mark Schofield

No. 15 Michigan State (7-seed)

Death, taxes, Tom Izzo in March. Sure it’s a cliche, however unbelievably correct. This is way from Izzo’s finest workforce on paper, however that’s meaningless in moments like this. Beating No. 2 Marquette proved why Izzo is certainly one of basketball’s biggest strategists, as he labored the whole offense via Tyson Walker, with Joey Hauser’s rebounding power shining en path to a double-double. Balanced on either side of the ball, the Spartans relish in taking part in spoiler, and that is simply a workforce that might proceed to shock. Kansas State represents a severe risk within the Sweet 16, however so did Marquette and we noticed how that ended up. With time to arrange Izzo may have this workforce able to compete, and counting out Michigan State is a idiot’s errand. Keep watching Tyson Walker on this match. While he was barely flat in opposition to USC within the opening spherical, he broke out within the massive means in opposition to Marquette, giving the workforce a headache as he used his athleticism to drive the lane and power foul after foul, capturing 7-8 from the road as he completed with 23 factors. — James Dator

No. 14 Florida Atlantic Owls (9-seed)

Has it been the prettiest of wins? No, under no circumstances. But the Owls preserve dancing, and are headed to the Sweet 16 for the primary time in program historical past. What’s made the Owls’ run so spectacular is that they’ve managed to show up the protection whereas the offense finds its shot. The Owls have held their opponents to date to beneath 30% capturing from deep, and of their 78-70 win over Farleigh Dickinson, the Owls protection held the upstart 16-seed to 38% from the sector and compelled 11 turnovers. The Owls have additionally gotten main contributions from their finest gamers, who’ve made powerful pictures all 12 months. Johnell Davis poured in 29 factors to go along with 12 rebounds, 5 assists and 5 steals, the primary participant in NCAA historical past to have that statline within the match. The scariest half? FAU hasn’t discovered their shot from deep but. The Owls usually shoot nearly 37% from deep and make ten threes per recreation, however that hasn’t fallen but. When it does, be careful as a result of we may have an upstart crashing the Final Four. — JPA

No. 13 Arkansas Razorbacks (8-seed)

It’s simple to see 4 potential NBA draft picks on Arkansas’ roster headlined by arguably probably the most star-studded freshmen class within the nation and consider these Razorbacks succeed by being a glitzy offensive powerhouse. In actuality, nothing might be farther from the reality. Arkansas survived a late push from Illinois and wiped away a double-digit second half deficit in opposition to No. 1 seed Kansas by grinding out possessions and giving up nothing simple on the defensive finish. While projected lottery choose Nick Smith went scoreless in opposition to the Jayhawks, fellow freshman studs Anthony Black and Jordan Walsh swung the sport with their great protection in opposition to KU stars Jalen Wilson and Gradey Dick. The Razorbacks have some dependable veterans, too, they usually wouldn’t nonetheless be taking part in with out Devo Davis and Ricky Council IV arising so many clutch buckets in Des Moines. Arkansas has the expertise to play with anybody, however they win as a result of they use it principally to dig deep on the defensive finish. After knocking off the defending champs, Arkansas has to consider it might probably play with anybody nonetheless standing within the West. — Ricky O’Donnell

No. 12 San Diego State Aztecs (5-seed)

The Aztecs may not win within the prettiest of how, nevertheless it’s rattling efficient. San Diego State has suffocated groups en path to the Sweet 16, solely giving up 57 and 52 factors of their first two video games. With their full courtroom press and the physicality they play with, they will flip any recreation right into a slugfest. Offensively, they need to get the ball into the put up and are primarily run via their bigs, however their finest participant to date has been guard Matt Bradley. The 6’4, 220-pound senior is ready to create his personal shot and get powerful buckets for the Aztecs when they should rating. They don’t shoot it in addition to most different groups within the tourney, but when they will proceed to get good performances from sharpshooter Micah Parrish, the Aztecs will proceed to bop. — JPA

No. 11 Xavier Musketeers (3-seed)

A 12 months to the day after Sean Miller agreed to return as the top coach at Xavier, he noticed the Musketeers punch their first ticket to the Sweet 16 since 2017. Xavier’s 84-73 win over Pittsburgh adopted a mannequin the Musketeers relied on all season lengthy: Unselfish play. Xavier was sixth within the nation in Assist Percentage, with an help approaching 64.1% of Xavier’s baskets this season. Against the Panthers, the Musketeers had a mixed 22 assists, with 17 approaching their first 19 baskets as they constructed a 14-point lead at halftime. Three gamers — guards Souley Boum, Colby Jones, and Adam Kunkel — averaged no less than three assists per recreation this season, they usually mixed for 15 assists in opposition to Pittsburgh. In addition, the Musketeers bought one other massive recreation from their man within the center, as Jack Nunge led the way in which with 18 factors. It was Nunge’s vital block on the finish of Xavier’s opening-round win over Kennesaw State that put Xavier into the Round of 32. Their robust guard play, and unselfish offensive philosophy, is a good mixture for a run to the Final Four. — Mark Schofield

No. 10 Creighton Bluejays (6-seed)

This Creighton workforce all the time felt prefer it had all of the items for a deep NCAA match run relationship again to the preseason when sharpshooter Baylor Scheierman signed on as the ultimate addition from the switch portal. It was a rocky highway for the Bluejays for a lot of the season in a troublesome Big East, however now the imaginative and prescient of what this workforce all the time may have been is beginning to come into focus. Creighton has ball dealing with, capturing, and rim safety, and every a part of the lineup made key contributions of their wins over No. 11 NC State and No. 3 Baylor. Center Ryan Kalkbrenner is among the nation’s finest shot blockers, nevertheless it was his scoring (31 factors) that carried Creighton in opposition to the Wolfpack. The win over an excellent Baylor squad was a real workforce effort, spearheaded by level guard Ryan Nembhard’s capability to get into the paint for straightforward buckets and free throws. Creighton has been a constantly good program, however they’ve by no means made an Elite Eight earlier than. With a good matchup in opposition to No. 15 seed Princeton arising, that is the time to do it. — ROD

No. 9 Kansas State Wildcats (3-seed)

Jerome Tang was alleged to have a multi-year rebuild on his fingers when he left his assistant place at Baylor to take over Kansas State: the Wildcats have been picked to complete final within the Big 12 coming into the season with a roster principally pieced collectively within the switch portal. Instead, Okay-State began 15-1, rose to No. 5 within the AP Poll at one level, and positioned top-three within the hardest convention in America. Their Sweet 16 run has proved this workforce isn’t any fluke: after taking out Montana State in spherical one, Kansas State gained the battle of the Wildcats by outlasting Kentucky in probably the greatest video games of the match. At this level, it seems like Tang’s workforce has the expertise to compete with anybody. The 5’8 Marquis Newell has develop into probably the greatest level guards within the subject, Keyontae Johnson continued his exceptional comeback story with a clutch step-back three to sink Kentucky late, and everybody else will get after it defensively. Suddenly, the Wildcats are the best seed nonetheless standing within the East Region. This Kansas State run feels actual, even when nobody would have believed it again in Oct. — ROD

No. 8 Miami Hurricanes (5-seed)

When you play the Hurricanes, you higher be prepared for a monitor meet. Miami performs at a frenetic tempo, getting up and down the courtroom and letting their guard play dictate the sport. Guards Isaiah Wong (the ACC Player of the Year) and Nigel Pack can torch defenses with their pace and skill to get to the rim, simply as they did in opposition to Indiana. Against the Hoosiers, Wong, Pack and Jordan Miller mixed for 58 factors, carving the Hoosier protection up each time they went to the rim. Defensively, they play with plenty of exercise, however will be inclined to massive scoring runs. However, if you wish to beat Miami, you gotta catch them first, and that could be your greatest concern. — JPA

No. 7 Tennessee Volunteers (4-seed)

This Tennessee basketball workforce has a really particular set of expertise, one which makes them a formidable opponent in March: they play protection nearly as good as any workforce that’s left within the match. Without star flooring common Zakai Zeigler, the Vols have needed to lean on their physicality and protection much more, and it makes them a fully terrifying opponent to play in opposition to. They don’t enable groups to make many three pointers, and their size mixed with their physicality offers plenty of groups issues. Offensively, they will enter lengthy intervals with out scoring factors, however they get contributions from everybody, resembling seniors Santiago Vescovi and Olivier Nkamhoua. Defense is their robust swimsuit although, and in the event that they’re making a deep run, it’ll be due to their protection. — JPA

No. 6 Gonzaga Bulldogs (3-seed)

There’s a sure kind of faculty basketball fan that views Gonzaga as a March Madness underachiever as a result of they haven’t gained a nationwide title, however in actuality no program within the nation succeeds at a excessive degree extra constantly. The Zags are into the Sweet 16 for the eighth consecutive 12 months, a very exceptional accomplishment that has included two appearances within the nationwide title recreation if no championship rings. This isn’t Gonzaga’s finest workforce over that stretch, nevertheless it’s nonetheless an excellent one. The Zags at the moment have the No. 1 offense within the nation, led by the great all-around recreation of senior heart Drew Timme, who put up a heroic 28-8-3 efficiency in a decent win over TCU within the spherical of 32. Anton Watson gives extra defensive assist on the within, whereas Julian Strawther is among the finest shooters left within the subject at 6’7. The looming matchup with Gonzaga seems like the most effective of the regional semifinals. Can they get sufficient stops to make yet another Final Four run with Timme? If not, we will’t wait to see them attempt to out-score the Bruins. — ROD

NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament - First Round - Albany

No. 5 UConn Huskies (4-seed)

UConn is again within the Sweet 16 for the primary time since their unbelievable run to the 2014 nationwide championship as a No. 7 seed. This time, it doesn’t really feel so shocking. The Huskies felt significantly under-seeded when the bracket listed them as No. 4 seed regardless of being top-5 in KenPom effectivity rankings and top-10 within the NET. UConn had dimension, it had capturing, and it had spectacular stability on each ends of the ground. So far, all of these issues have shined via of their first two wins. We ranked junior massive man Adama Sanogo as a top-10 participant in March Madness coming into the match, and he proceeded to dominate the opening weekend: after dropping 28 factors and 13 rebounds on Iona, he adopted it up with 24 factors and eight rebounds throughout a win over Saint Mary’s. UConn’s shooters have been on fireplace, too, hitting about 45 % of their threes throughout the 2 wins. The protection? Yes, that’s good, too, with each match opponents held beneath one level per possession. With high seed Kansas out within the West Region, the Huskies can dream of one other Final Four run. They actually do have the items to do it. — ROD

No. 4 UCLA Bruins (2-seed)

Despite all the pieces, the Bruins simply preserve successful. UCLA is within the Sweet Sixteen for the third consecutive season, however they’ve discovered themselves severely banged up on the trail there. Already with out Jaylen Clark, probably the greatest defenders within the nation, the Bruins suffered one other blow when sharpshooter David Singleton crumpled to the ground with an ankle damage late of their win over Northwestern. Singleton says he’s good to go, however UCLA is skinny. It’s develop into a theme for them: final match Jamie Jaquez Jr. sprained his ankle so unhealthy that he wanted offseason surgical procedure, and the 12 months earlier than it was Johnny Juzang who hobbled via the match.

The Bruins have performed dominant to date, solely trailing for 62 seconds of recreation time at the start of their second spherical recreation. They have probably the greatest backcourts within the match: Jaquez Jr. is scoring with ease, averaging 20.5 factors and eight rebounds per recreation and Tyger Campbell feasted on the free throw line (12-12) in opposition to Northwestern. Their weak level is their lack of depth at heart, the place senior Kenneth Nwuba is backed up by freshman Mac Etienne, who was taking part in about 5 minutes per recreation earlier than the match. If Nwuba will get into foul bother, the Bruins may have a weak level for an opportune workforce to assault. – Adam Ward

No. 3 Texas Longhorns (2-seed)

Texas was battle-tested within the nation’s hardest convention all season, and the bumps they took alongside the way in which certain appear to be serving to this workforce play its finest basketball on the proper time. The Longhorns have been dominant on their method to a Big 12 match championship, and picked up the place they left off to begin the massive dance with wins over Colgate and Penn State. This workforce is beginning to really feel prefer it checks each field for a nationwide champion: they’ve two star guards who can create for themselves and others in Marcus Carr and Tyrese Hunter, they’ve a rotating solid of massive forwards who can end performs inside and defend the paint, they usually have as a lot depth as any workforce nonetheless standing. Interim head coach Rodney Terry helped recruit so many of those gamers within the switch portal, and he’s pushing all the fitting buttons in the meanwhile. Texas basketball isn’t a sleeping large anymore; they’re right here, they usually have every bit a workforce must win six video games on this match. — ROD

No. 2 Alabama (1-seed)

There’s no avoiding that discussing the Crimson Tide is messy, and sophisticated. The off-court authorized proceedings swirling across the workforce will linger after the season is finished, and we don’t but know if star participant Brandon Miller will likely be charged in reference to the dying of Jamea Harris. Murder expenses have been filed in opposition to former Alabama participant Darius Miles and his good friend good friend Michael Davis, and we’re but to completely understand how far out this extends.

It’s tough balancing celebrating this workforce as a power on the courtroom, whereas additionally acknowledging the state of affairs off of it. When it involves the Sweet 16 the most effective we will do is focus on the efficiency we’ve been introduced with. Alabama has finished precisely what a No. 1 seed ought to. They blew out Texas A&M – CC within the first spherical, and cruised to a 22 level win over No. 8 Maryland within the second spherical, placing the hammer down within the second half and pulling away, exhibiting their depth. Miller is among the finest gamers in faculty basketball, and capable of rating in bunches when wanted, however he’s additionally keen to take a again seat and permit teammates Jahvon Quinerly and Mark Sears shine in opposition to groups with stronger entrance courts. This number of methods to attain ought to propel the Crimson Tide into the Final Four, they usually’re completely a workforce to favored to go all the way in which. — James Dator

No. 1 Houston Cougars (1-seed)

A shaky opening-round recreation in opposition to Northern Kentucky had some prognosticators questioning if Houston would have the ability to put collectively a deep run, however Saturday’s effort in opposition to Auburn, significantly within the second half, possible erased these fears. Despite trailing on the half by ten, the Cougars took over within the second half, outscoring the Tigers by 27 en path to their 81-64 victory. Houston additionally bought some excellent news previous to tipoff relating to the well being of All-American guard Marcus Sasser. Despite being restricted in opposition to Northern Kentucky, and never taking part in within the second half, Sasser performed with out limitations on Saturday and hung 22 on the Tigers. If Sasser is wholesome, and the Cougars proceed to frustrate opponents with their stifling protection, Houston may put collectively a deep, deep run. — Mark Schofield