Now that my undefeated document of choosing No. 13 seeds or decrease within the NCAA Tournament publicly continues to be intact after Furman’s victory over Virginia on Thursday, I’m deciding to not relaxation on my laurels and inform you all about one other prediction I made earlier this week. For followers of Deadspin’s Agree to Disagree video collection, it is a choice I’ve already proclaimed on digital camera. Auburn will upset the Midwest area’s No. 1 seed in Houston on Saturday. It’s not fairly the lopsided upset as choosing the Paladins or Saint Peter’s over Kentucky final 12 months, nevertheless it’s little doubt not what’ll be favored.
The Cougars appeared horrible in opposition to one of many worst groups within the NCAA Tournament. Northern Kentucky received out of a weak low-major within the Horizon League. The Norse genuinely impressed me final evening and held powerful with one of many supposed greatest groups within the nation. Kelvin Sampson’s squad earned that No. 1 seed and was arguably probably the most constant workforce within the nation through the common season. And Houston both was trying previous a workforce it knew it may simply defeat, or the upstart Norse actually uncovered what a Marcus Sasser-less workforce seems to be like.
If you’re taking the very best participant away from any nice workforce, it received’t be as mighty anymore. Purdue with out Zach Edey is a bubble workforce and is perhaps enjoying within the NIT proper now. Alabama with out Brandon Miller, which needs to be a actuality proper now with the off-court drama surrounding the Crimson Tide, would’ve gotten a robust seed in The Big Dance, however probably extra towards the 4-5 line. Sasser is that needle-mover for the Cougars. The drop-off with out the 6-foot-2 senior guard and probably NBA lottery choose due to a groin harm suffered within the American Athletic Conference Tournament final week, is obvious. He was pulled at halftime by Sampson and Houston was inconsistent with out him.
Auburn had a real toss-up matchup with Iowa on paper. The Tigers have been at all times higher than their seeding, whereas Iowa wasn’t. The Hawkeyes have by no means had a future within the event underneath Fran McCaffery and this 12 months’s Kris Murray-led squad was no totally different. The SEC outmuscled the Big Ten. There’s no method round that. And Auburn may have thrown a couple of extra punches on the finish of the sport if wanted. In the nightcap, it was apparent by the top of the sport how drained Northern Kentucky was. A workforce higher conditioned to play with Houston, which can be each workforce the Cougars see the remainder of the season, will be capable of take higher benefit of a inclined, unmotivated squad. And if the dearth of drive isn’t actuality for UH, it didn’t present it in opposition to the Norse. It additionally has an ideal probability for redemption in opposition to Auburn. But nothing’s assured. And Bruce Pearl-coached groups normally don’t miss when provided that type of alternative.
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It’s not clear if Sasser will play at 7:10 p.m. on TBS with a visit to the Sweet 16 on the road. It is evident that if he performs, he received’t be at full well being, which is already a downgrade from what we’ve anticipated from the Cougars for many of this season. Auburn is a workforce that’s gone by means of a bunch of adversity this season and nonetheless discovered its method safely into March Madness. It’s a unique type of lure to outline the adversity for Houston. Saying the Cougars have been by means of none could be silly. Their paths of resistance have been examined in video games, with extra tangible rewards, like 11 extra wins than the Tigers this season, alongside the best way. That’ll imply little come Saturday evening in Birmingham, a brief 110-mile journey from Auburn. And it won’t be a house recreation for the AU, nevertheless it ought to really feel prefer it from the gang. Houston’s strolling into enemy territory and I don’t suppose it’ll be sturdy sufficient to stroll out of the primetime matchup nonetheless with a season to play for.