March 2022: The Los Angeles Rams have been lower than a month faraway from their Super Bowl parade and NFL free company was simply underway. Fans have been a naive group previous to that 2022 offseason, having no thought about the storm of game-changing strikes that lay instantly in entrance of us. Before Russell Wilson to the Broncos, Davante Adams to the Raiders, Tyreek Hill to the Dolphins, and AJ Brown to the Eagles, there was one transfer that set all of the big-name free agent signings into movement — Christian Kirk signing a four-year, $72 million (as much as $84 million via incentives) take care of the Jacksonville Jaguars.
Sure, this wasn’t the primary transfer of the offseason, because the tweet above mentions, however it was the primary main signing. Kirk had simply come off the very best season of his profession, racking up 77 receptions, 982 yards, and 5 touchdowns with the Arizona Cardinals. Still, when phrase hit the web of Kirk’s deal, followers in every single place collectively tilted their heads in confusion. Sure, he was first rate, however not price as much as $21 million a yr, proper?
Well, after one season in Jacksonville, the Jaguars appear to be geniuses. When thrust into the highlight, Kirk thrived, setting new profession highs in each class that issues. He expedited quarterback Trevor Lawrence’s growth and his Jags are set to run the AFC South for years to come back. Although paying somebody with as little success within the NFL as Kirk appeared questionable on the time, it paid dividends as a result of the Jaguars noticed what Kirk may turn out to be. Every workforce must be striving for a brand new fancy vast receiver to assist their younger quarterback, even when it means paying a fairly penny. Hill helped Tua Tagovailoa. Brown helped Jalen Hurts. Although so many gifted receivers will not be out there via commerce as have been final offseason, the 2023 free-agent class nonetheless holds a number of gems on the place, most notably 26-year-old Jakobi Meyers.
What about different free-agent WR expertise?
While different, extra established receivers like Super Bowl champ JuJu Smith-Schuster or Aaron Rodgers’ high goal from 2022 Allen Lazard could also be safer choices, the upside that Meyers brings to the desk may be very paying homage to pre-Jags Christian Kirk. Meyers thrives within the slot — though he has proven an potential to win on the skin as nicely. In 2022, he lined up within the slot for 333 offensive snaps (51.7 p.c of the time) — the Sixteenth-most slot snaps within the league. He amassed 67 receptions, 804 receiving yards, and 6 touchdowns in simply fourteen video games whereas working in a really run-heavy, conservative offense with subpar quarterback play and Matt Patricia as his offensive coordinator. That’s plenty of elements working towards Meyers, and but he confirmed flashes of high receiver potential.
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Now, Kirk and Meyers don’t share most of the identical instruments. Kirk is a YAC monster with upper-end pace and elusiveness. Meyers excels in contested catch conditions. Over the final three years, he’s maintained a 69 p.c catch price on contested balls. That’s among the best marks within the league. However, the purpose nonetheless stays. Both gamers have been underutilized by the workforce that drafted them and had the instruments to burst into stardom underneath the appropriate circumstances. Lucky for Meyers, Kirk paved the best way for the NC State product to earn an enormous payday forward of 2023.
Where can Meyers excel?
The subsequent query must be “Okay, well clearly, the Patriots weren’t the right system to maximize Meyers’ talents. Who is?” The easiest reply can be to duplicate a workforce within the Jaguars’ scenario — good head coach, younger quarterback, strong run recreation however not a run-heavy offense, and in want of expertise at receiver. The New York Giants fulfill three of these classes. Unfortunately, they’re a fairly run-heavy workforce, rating twenty second in pass-play proportion final season. Furthermore, the run recreation may not be as strong for Big Blue in 2023 ought to Saquon Barkley not be re-signed. The Colts and/or Texans are in all probability the very best suits relying on what they do within the upcoming draft. Sure, each groups are heading into 2023 with rookie head coaches, which may additionally alter their pass-heavy tendencies from 2022 (rating ninth and tenth within the league), however that’s as near 4 verify marks as we’re going to get.
Meyers’ deal may set the usual for the remainder of the 2023 free agent vast receiver class as nicely. In actuality, although, nobody, besides possibly Smith-Schuster ought to come near the common annual worth Meyers will command. Odell Beckham Jr. is growing older and didn’t play in any respect final season. Allen Lazard had a chance to take over all of the targets Davante Adams left in Green Bay. He acquired outshined by a pair of rookie vast receivers. Darius Slayton was inconsistent. Julio Jones simply ain’t the man he as soon as was.
The truth of the matter is that a number of groups watched different organizations pay huge cash for vast receivers final offseason, and virtually all of them panned out precisely how their franchise had hoped. Even if Meyers doesn’t possess the abilities essential to explode in 2023 as Kirk did. I discover it laborious to assume some workforce received’t be prepared to take such a danger. Personally, although, I think about him. Don’t be shocked when it occurs.