Winter is not the sleepy low season it as soon as was at Walt Disney World, however wait occasions have dropped–in some circumstances, fairly dramatically–from their vacation highs. This crowd report shares current information, ideas on what’s more likely to occur subsequent with attendance ranges between now and Spring Break, and which dates will find yourself being the busiest.
As has been the case since 2018, winter is mostly a ‘tale of two seasons’ at Walt Disney World. There are peaks and valleys, with actually excessive highs and comparatively low lows. Obviously, Christmas and New Year’s Eve are peak weeks–everybody is aware of that. But it’s not merely gradual between then and Spring Break, and hasn’t been for a number of years.
This yr, the vacation highs continued till Central Florida faculty districts went again into session and the Walt Disney World Marathon ended. This was additionally predictable, and most followers know that week-plus has gotten unhealthy. However, it was unprecedentedly crowded this yr. So, how have crowds been since then? Let’s have a look…
As all the time, what’s lined in these “crowd” reviews is definitely posted wait time information that’s pulled from My Disney Experience and compiled into graphs for monitoring and evaluating numerous days, weeks, months, and years. Lots may be gleaned from posted wait occasions, but it surely’s not essentially conclusive of in-park congestion or crowds.
There are a number of different variables that may impression “feels like” crowds, from festivals at EPCOT to climate to visitor demographics to trip breakdowns to operational effectivity to time of day or day of the week. And that’s only a partial checklist! Beyond that, wait occasions may be manipulated by Walt Disney World. They’re usually inflated, or in any other case inaccurate.
In brief, wait occasions are an imperfect measure of Walt Disney World’s uncooked attendance or crowds–which have elevated by a number of million individuals over the course of the final decade-plus. With that out of the best way, let’s dig into the information and have a look at Walt Disney World wait occasions. As all the time, all graphs and stats are courtesy of Thrill-Data.com:
We’ll begin with the month-to-month numbers for Walt Disney World as a complete.
This is most attention-grabbing when you evaluate this January and February to the identical months final yr. Notice January was a lot busier this yr and February, to this point, is way much less busy? Before drawing any untimely conclusions, check out the following graph…
If we break this down by week, the variations needs to be simpler to identify. When it involves this January, the post-NYE winter break crowds had been off the charts (nicely, not actually). By distinction, that first week of January was trending downward as in comparison with the vacations final yr.
As for February, the important thing distinction there may be that Presidents’ Day has not but occurred this yr. That was the massive spike final yr, and skewed crowd ranges upwards for the whole month. Otherwise, it could’ve been a comparatively reasonable winter. Just like this yr.
Above is a have a look at the every day numbers over the course of the final 6 months.
This illustrates the diploma of the “slowdown,” which is on par with the early December lull. Still not almost nearly as good because the lows of final September, although. Slowdown receives air quotes as a result of wait occasions are solely barely beneath common, and there’s a great likelihood these visiting this time of yr had been anticipating even decrease numbers.
We’ll begin the park-by-park information with Magic Kingdom, the place crowd ranges have normalized this yr after a number of consecutive months of Mickey’s Not So Scary Halloween Party and Mickey’s Very Merry Christmas Party dates.
January 31 is the anomaly, registering a 14 minute common wait time. Whether that was as a result of a spontaneous grassroots boycott or the 4:30 pm park closing time that day is anybody’s guess. One factor price mentioning right here is that the times earlier than and after had 30+ minute common waits. As we’ve mentioned time and time once more, you come out forward with the shorter hours by advantage of the time saved (not) ready in line. Counterintuitive as it’d sound, take the shorter hours!
Above are attraction wait occasions for the month thus far at Magic Kingdom.
Really not many surprises right here. The one wildcard was Big Thunder Mountain Railroad, and whether or not it’d spike or fall with the closure of Splash Mountain. In actuality, it has not materially modified. Jungle Cruise is lastly returning to actuality, at the least for now. Lots of meet & greets on this checklist once more, which is good to see. Even when you don’t do them, they add capability and assist take in crowds–particularly vital when a headliner is down for nearly 2 years and the following new trip has not but formally opened.
Continuing to EPCOT, the place crowd ranges have fallen again to earth after their stratospheric highs over the vacation season. Lots of three/10 days, but additionally a scattering of 6/10 and above ones in there, too.
The huge factor this illustrates is simply how otherwise vacationers and locals “do” EPCOT. Attendance shouldn’t be low at EPCOT proper now–removed from it. In truth, the “feels like” crowds are notably unhealthy at occasions, owing to the ever-increasing reputation of the EPCOT International Festival of the Arts.
However, nothing at EPCOT’s Festival of the Arts has a posted wait time, and that’s what the above graph measures. Meaning that locals exhibiting up, wandering round, grazing the meals cubicles, having fun with artwork and leisure, however NOT doing a single attraction contribute to crowds however to not crowd ranges. Paradoxically, these persons are most likely worse for crowdedness, as they’re just about all the time in walkways and never in standby traces. Call it the “EPCOT Effect” or no matter, but it surely’s noticeable at this park greater than any of the others.
When taking a look at attraction wait occasions, there aren’t any surprises at EPCOT, both.
The prime trio of Remy’s Ratatouille Adventure, Frozen Ever After, and Test Track are all at or above an hour, however every part else has been largely manageable. Give this a couple of extra days and Soarin’ Around the World and Mission: Space will be a part of the checklist of hour-plus common wait occasions.
Animal Kingdom can also be coming off its vacation highs, with extra manageable wait occasions within the final month-plus. The Martin Luther King Jr. Day vacation weekend was additionally busy, however not almost as unhealthy as Christmas break.
After a quieter couple of weeks, wait occasions seem like trending up once more. The final a number of days have been within the 8/10 vary, which is attention-grabbing and a bit shocking. These numbers will worsen, however that shouldn’t occur till the tip of this week and the weekend.
As with the opposite parks, particular person trip wait occasions are nearly precisely what we’d count on.
Avatar Flight of Passage is nearly off the chart, adopted not-so-closely by Na’vi River Journey and Kilimanjaro Safaris. As all the time, that is the park the place it’s best to beat the crowds when you merely arrive early or keep late. Just don’t do what everybody else does, which is roll up late, do rides through the center of the day when wait occasions are at their absolute worst, earlier than bouncing early.
Finally, there’s Disney’s Hollywood Studios. This is a fairly comparable story to Animal Kingdom, albeit with a extra pronounced spike for MLK Day weekend. As with DAK, crowds even have elevated and held regular for the final week at DHS.
During that point, common wait occasions have ranged from 44 to 50 minutes. I wouldn’t count on averages to fall again beneath 40 minutes till early May. In the following week, averages will doubtless spike to over 60 minutes once more, if not worse.
Disney’s Hollywood Studios is the place the person attraction wait occasions are the worst and the averages on the prior every day graph are arguably misleading. This is as a result of a number of exhibits skew the common down due to ~10 minute posted wait occasions. Meanwhile, there are extra headliners with 60+ minute waits than every other park.
Speaking of which, Tower of Terror stays excessive on the checklist as a result of one of many elevator shafts being out of service (once more). Expect that to vary this week, because it’s again to full capability forward of the busy break season. Star Wars: Rise of the Resistance and Slinky Dog Dash will each surpass it, and it’s attainable {that a} couple different points of interest will, too.
Finally, let’s check out how all of this compares to Universal Orlando.
The most placing factor to me about this graph is the diploma to which Universal’s parks observe seasonal attendance developments and tourism information. Conventional knowledge is that Universal has gained market share amongst Floridians as they’ve catered to locals extra aggressively and really promote Annual Passes. This has been the dominant narrative and, frankly, one I purchased and superior within the yr following the reopening.
However, the wait time information and developments beginning at first of final yr not assist that place. This isn’t to say Universal Orlando is underperforming or something of the type, however when you’re anticipating Universal to overhaul Disney, you would possibly need to modify your expectations. That is, except you’re utilizing a Yogi Berra-ism to clarify Disney’s downfall: “Nobody goes there anymore. It’s too crowded.”
Aside from that, not a very attention-grabbing or illuminating wait occasions and crowd report. Aside from the Martin Luther King Jr. Day vacation weekend, issues have been fairly uneventful since faculty went again into session within the second week of January. The final a number of weeks have largely been within the barely beneath to barely above common vary–which means fairly reasonable crowds throughout the board.
This has been nearly precisely on par with final yr. In truth, the common weekly wait occasions are inside a couple of minutes of final yr’s numbers. Again, that doubtless barely understates the ‘feels like’ crowd ranges, particularly at EPCOT. Nevertheless, that can also be constant from yr to yr, as winter is a time that attracts locals to the parks.
This is nice information and a ‘nature is healing’ report from the angle of crowd calendars. After a pair years of unpredictability (or at the least much less predictability) as a result of cancellations, reservations, pent-up demand, and different abnormalities, this winter has settled into a really predictable sample. It’s unhealthy information from the angle of crowd reviews, as there’s little or no that’s actually attention-grabbing right here. (I’ve been pushing aside writing one in all these for the final a number of weeks as a result of I figured it’d be a boring one primarily based on the information, however figured I ought to do it earlier than the craziness kicks off…)
Speaking of which, it’s fairly protected to foretell that this coming week will likely be busier than final week. Another not-so-bold prediction is that the upcoming weekend will likely be busier than the weekend that simply concluded…and that the week following that will likely be actually unhealthy, too. As a reminder, that is the confluence of Presidents’ Day, Mardi Gras, Princess Half Marathon, and a pair youth sporting occasions at ESPN Wide World of Sports.
We just lately highlighted simply how unhealthy this will likely be within the Worst Week of Winter is Coming at Walt Disney World. Suffice to say, this would be the busiest week of the primary quarter and could possibly be one of many 5 worst weeks of 2023–proper up there with Thanksgiving, Christmas, New Year’s, and the height of spring break.
With that mentioned, I’m shocked by the Disney Park Pass scenario. Currently, the one yellow day is that this coming Friday, with solely Magic Kingdom being unavailable. I believed for positive extra of these days would replenish at MK and DHS by now, if not as a result of natural demand, because of Disney’s need to redistribute attendance.
That’s one optimistic that we’ve seen during the last couple months–Walt Disney World has not been using Park Pass to normalize attendance throughout all 4 parks. This is one thing we noticed even final August and September, when crowd ranges had been at their lowest. I’m curious what prompted the change. Could be staffing, visitor satisfaction, or misplaced enterprise because of attempting to “force” individuals to go to sure parks. Perhaps a mixture of the above.
Regardless, this development ought to put us one step nearer to Walt Disney World retiring reservations for everybody besides APs, or maybe for all dates besides peak vacation weeks. If subsequent week stays inexperienced–and even yellow–the Park Pass system arguably has served its goal and is not wanted for all friends or dates.
Nevertheless, our prediction is that the common wait time exceeds 50 minutes subsequent week, and doubtless finally ends up round 52-55 minutes. That would put the general crowd degree at 10/10, and on the upper aspect of that. To put that into perspective, final week common 39 minutes, which precisely common–5/10 on the gang calendar.
A distinction of +11 minutes might not seem to be a lot, but it surely’s big over the course of the whole day. (Those additional minutes additionally disproportionately impression widespread points of interest, since exhibits usually don’t improve in any respect.) For the common visitor, that quantities to an additional couple of hours spent standing in traces per day or, extra doubtless, fewer high-profile points of interest achieved.
More so than regular, we extremely suggest beating the crowds as finest as attainable by using Genie+ and Lightning Lanes, Early Entry, Extended Evening Hours, rope drop, and many others. We cowl the perfect & worst strategy for every park in Best Time-Saving Strategies for Walt Disney World. If you’re solely going to learn one planning put up, make it that. There are nice methods to beat the crowds–even on busy days–with out shopping for Genie+ or Individual Lightning Lanes.
Ultimately, we expect this week to turn into more and more busy, however nonetheless nothing as in comparison with the upcoming weekend and week that follows. It’s actually not a matter of “if” it’s crowded, however reasonably, how excessive the wait occasions get. Will this surpass winter break because the busiest week of 2023 to date? Will it find yourself being worse than the height of spring break? One of the 5 worst weeks of the yr?
As a reminder, Presidents’ Day week final yr ended up being tied, wait time-wise, with Orange County’s Spring Break. Those weeks weren’t dethroned because the busiest of the yr till Christmas and New Year’s (even Thanksgiving wasn’t as unhealthy). That was with out Presidents’ Day coinciding with Mardi Gras, suggesting that this yr could possibly be even worse. Whether it finally ends up being the busiest of the yr stays to be seen, however we’re guessing it finally ends up being within the prime 5.
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YOUR THOUGHTS
Predictions on crowds for the remainder of February 2023 and Spring Break? If you’ve visited this winter season, what was your notion of “feels like” crowds? Do you assume it’s been a return to the low season of years previous, or nearly indistinguishable from busier vacation timeframes? Thoughts on our predictions? Agree or disagree with something right here? If you’ve visited in prior months over the last yr, how did crowds evaluate between then and now? What did you consider the wait occasions? Any parks or occasions of day noticeably worse than the others? Do you agree or disagree with something in our report? Any questions we might help you reply? Hearing your suggestions–even while you disagree with us–is each attention-grabbing to us and useful to different readers, so please share your ideas beneath within the feedback!