The 2022-23 NBA Season has been plagued by overarching storylines.
Will Nikola Jokic change into simply the fourth participant in NBA historical past to win three straight MVPs?
Will the Golden State Warriors overcome preseason turmoil to win their second straight NBA title?
Who will win the Victor Wembanyama sweepstakes?
Chief amongst all these narratives has been the query of whether or not or not the sport’s best participant ever (possibly?) will break essentially the most sacred file within the sport.
With solely 283 factors sitting between LeBron James and Kareem Abdul-Jabaar, and 37 Los Angeles Laker video games left on the season, the query is now not a matter of will he do it, however reasonably, when and the place will he break the scoring file.
To try to determine this out, we’re going to want to do some ~ math.
On the season, The King is averaging 29.8 PPG. If he continues that common, he’ll surpass Abdul-Jabaar in roughly 9.5 video games. So, it might be in the course of the Lakers’ Feb. 7 conflict with the Oklahoma City Thunder.
Chances are, although, with the best way James has been enjoying of late, it could even come earlier than that. During the month of January (7 video games), James has been averaging 34.9 factors per contest. If he continues to attain at that price, he’ll change into the all-time main scorer 8.1 video games from now, which might imply he would break the file early in his group’s street matchup in opposition to the New Orleans Pelicans on Feb. 4.
(Sidebar: hopefully, Zion Williamson is wholesome for that recreation as a result of it might make for a very cool story to see one generational expertise break the all-time scoring file in entrance of one other one.)
But wait, our projections are failing to account for one essential variable — well being. So far, James has solely participated in 35 of the group’s 45 video games (77.8%), that means he’s lacking roughly two out of each 10 video games.
If that damage development continues whereas he’s scoring on the 29.8 PPG tempo, he’ll break the file on the street in opposition to the Golden State Warriors on Feb. 23. If he’s on the 34.9 PPG scoring clip, he would be the proprietor of the best file in basketball by the tip of the Lakers’ residence recreation in opposition to the Milwaukee Bucks on Feb. 9.
If you ask me, that’s most likely the best-case state of affairs. James will probably be at residence, enjoying in opposition to the participant many view as the present finest participant on the planet, Giannis Antetounkmpo, enjoying for the group Abdul-Jabbar set the scoring file with, in opposition to the group he scored 14,211 of his 38,387 profession factors for.
Regardless of what the storyline is, James is coming for Abdul-Jabaar’s throne. And primarily based on our projections, it seems to be like will probably be all his comparatively quickly.
To monitor James’ persevering with pursuit of the scoring title in actual time, go to our scoring tracker over on the Silver Screen and Roll.