The San Francisco 49ers have a protracted highway forward of them in the event that they need to win their first Super Bowl since 1995. Not essentially as a result of they’re going to face a whole lot of sturdy competitors — the NFC is slightly weak this yr — however as a result of they should win 4 straight video games with 2022’s Mr. Irrelevant beneath heart. Leading as much as the playoffs, that hasn’t hindered the 49ers although. They’ve gained 10 straight video games, 5 of which have include Purdy because the staff’s signal-caller. He has but to report a single sport with fewer than two passing touchdowns, and has a passer ranking of 119 since taking up for the injured Jimmy Garoppolo. It’s been an awesome story, and bettors appear inclined to suppose it’s one thing extra.
What are the chances?
According to OddsChecker US, since Week 18 of the common season got here to an in depth, the 49ers have seen a staggering 17.7 p.c of bets positioned on them to win the Super Bowl. What’s even crazier is that, generally, most of these numbers point out nice odds for an underappreciated squad, however the 49ers don’t have that downside. They have the third-best odds to win all of it (+500), behind solely the Kansas City Chiefs (+350) and Buffalo Bills (+400). In truth, the staff with the second-most bets to hoist the Lombardi Trophy, the Cincinnati Bengals, has worse odds to win all of it (+850). Normally, I’d suppose bettors would flock to the staff that wouldn’t solely pay out extra for profitable all of it, however was additionally one win away from doing so simply final yr.
Could a weak NFC be main bettors to the 49ers?
Is the NFC actually that unhealthy that bettors are keen to earn much less cash for the arrogance that comes with supporting the most popular staff within the NFC? It appears so, and so they do have motive to be assured in SF’s probabilities. For the yr, the 49ers have allowed opponents to attain solely 16.3 factors per sport, whereas scoring 33.5 factors per sport with Purdy at quarterback. Over a full 17-game season, this equates to 277 factors allowed and 570 factors for. There is just one staff within the Super Bowl Era to permit fewer whole factors whereas scoring extra: The 2007 New England Patriots, who went 16-0 throughout the common season.
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Great numbers don’t always get you a Super Bowl victory
However, as I’m sure all of you know, that team didn’t win the Super Bowl. That said, of the seven teams to have scored 500 or more points in a season while allowing fewer than 300, five went on to represent their conference in the Super Bowl (the 1998 Vikings and 2019 Ravens did not). Only two actually won it all — the 1999 Rams and 1994 49ers. By that logic, the odds of the 49ers reaching the Super Bowl should be pretty high, so why is there still a sense of unease in regard to them winning it all?
Bet on Brock?
Purdy is the obvious answer. Despite playing phenomenally well, he is still a seventh-round rookie. Another factor may be the 49ers’ lack of difficult opponents since Purdy came into the fold. Although Purdy did face two playoff teams, he only faced one with a winning record — the Seattle Seahawks. I’ll admit, even as a 49ers fan, this scares me a bit as well. With such an inexperienced man under center, it’s hard to come back if the 49ers fall behind early. Since Purdy took over the starting gig, the 49ers have had only one game where the team was forced to throw the ball more often than they ran it — Week 17 against the Las Vegas Raiders. That was a game the 49ers should’ve dominated. I mean, for goodness sake, the Raiders didn’t even play Derek Carr in that game, yet when push came to shove, Purdy had a difficult time pulling out the win. Who knows? If Tashaun Gipson didn’t make that game-sealing interception in overtime, maybe the 49ers wouldn’t have ended the season on a ten-game win streak.
Can the 49ers play from behind?
Yes, Purdy eventually did pull the 10-point comeback, but he should’ve never been in that position. What happens when the 49ers fall behind against an offense like Philadelphia’s or Buffalo’s that doesn’t succumb to pressure and can consistently score even against the best defenses in the NFL? That’s where I’m worried.
Best of the bunch?
Given the problems every other team in the NFC has, I wouldn’t be surprised if the 49ers represented their conference in the Super Bowl, but should they go up against the Chiefs, Bills, or Bengals, I’d have a hard time believing they’d win. They’ve already lost by 21 to the Chiefs this season, and while the 49ers did make the switch at quarterback a few weeks later, and perhaps hadn’t come into form at that point yet, 21 points is still a lot. Yes, Tom Brady and the Bucs beat the New Orleans Saints in the 2020 playoffs after losing 38-3 in the regular season, but Purdy isn’t Brady, despite their low draft statuses.
The talent is there — but can they put it all together?
The 49ers have the talent to win it all. That’s undeniable. However, the quarterback position is and has long been the most important position in football, and quarterbacks making their first career postseason start tend to struggle.
How rookie QBs have fared in recent years
Since the NFL changed its playoff format in 2002, teams with quarterbacks making their first-ever postseason starts have gone 24-46, together with an abysmal 1-4 efficiency final season (Carr, Hurts, Jones, Murray, Burrow). To be truthful, the only QB that gained, Joe Burrow, reached the Super Bowl, and was one Ja’Marr Chase streak away from profitable that sport. I anticipate the 49ers to beat the Seahawks, as they’ve finished twice this yr already. So with that mentioned, possibly the 49ers have an outstanding likelihood in any case.Â