There’s been a ton of chatter this week about who’s on upset alert, and most of that discuss has surrounded two NFC groups vulnerable to shedding in essentially the most extravagant methods attainable with regards to the playoffs. The Dallas Cowboys and the Minnesota Vikings are 2.5- and 3-point favorites, respectively, in matchups towards the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and New York Giants, and that’s comprehensible given the groups’ histories. Yet, I’m not solely bought on the San Francisco 49ers waltzing into the subsequent spherical.
Granted the Seattle Seahawks spent the previous 5 weeks attempting to lose the scent of an underdog and their playoff bid, however one thing about postseason divisional matchups makes me uneasy. These two NFC West foes confronted off in Weeks 2 and 15, and neither was notably shut. San Francisco additionally has gained 10 in a row and has the look of a squad peaking on the proper time, set for one more deep run within the postseason.
Yet once you look at these 13 wins, you’ll discover they’ve beat 4 playoff groups all 12 months — Seattle twice, Tampa Bay, the Chargers, and Miami — and solely one in every of them is greater than three video games above .500. (And that group is the Chargers for fuck’s sake.) I do know you may solely play who’s in your schedule, however that doesn’t imply they’re this battle-tested juggernaut.
So permit me to make the case of the individuals of the Pacific Northwest as a result of nobody else will.
The 49ers don’t have lots of flaws, however QB inexperience is one in every of them
The win over Seattle was QB Brock Purdy’s second begin, and the Niner’s third-string QB is an ideal 5-0 since taking up for the injured Jimmy Garoppolo. Head coach Kyle Shanahan’s system is so environment friendly, and the group is so proficient, that he doesn’t want his quarterback to be prolific. Deebo Samuel received harm towards Tampa in Purdy’s second time seeing motion, and it hasn’t mattered a lot. The large receiver/working again hybrid did return in Week 18, and touched the ball thrice for twenty-four yards, so San Francisco is enjoying with a full complement of ability gamers.
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However, Seattle also will have all of its go-to playmakers as Tyler Lockett returned in the regular season finale, and Kenneth Walker III is back to his unconventional yet extremely effective self. That’s great news for Pete Carroll and Geno Smith because the Niners are allowing league lows in points (16) and yards (300) per game, and the Hawks’ defense is in the bottom third of both those stats.
Run CMC vs. Seattle’s run D
Based on that, the most crucial matchup of Saturday’s game is Christian McCaffery (pictured above) and the 49er running game versus the Seahawk rush defense. That’s why if Smith and Co. want to shock the world, they’re going to have to jump out early, or get a rookie mistake… from a rookie. Sure, Purdy overcame a 10-point second-half deficit to Las Vegas, but blowing double-digit second-half leads was the Raiders’ defining characteristic this season. Let’s see Purdy perspire a little bit before we declare him the next Tom Brady.
We’ve got a first-timer here
This will be Mr. Irrelevant’s first playoff look — and likewise his first time dealing with a group twice. Having movie on, and recreation expertise towards a quarterback is sort of a beginning pitcher’s third time by the lineup. Two of Purdy’s 5 wins basically performed underneath preseason situations, that is simply his sixth begin, and enjoying quarterback isn’t this simple, even underneath Shanahan.
Seattle has overcome the chances because the Russell Wilson commerce
While most individuals have been ready for the Seahawks to go away all season with the intention to get off their Geno jokes — and I used to be responsible of some earlier than the 12 months — I deleted that draft folder. With the best way he’s carried out, and with Pete Carroll yelling “hurrah” in his ear the previous 5 months, this can be a excellent narrative for a coach to beat over his quarterback’s head. And what’s Carroll’s best energy if not motivation?
I imply take a look at all of the issues he can pin to his (I’m assuming) outsized bulletin board:
- It’s onerous to beat a group thrice
- We’re not afraid of a divisional opponent
- Every pundits’ picks
- The 10-point unfold
- An image of Purdy
- An image of Geno
I’m positive there’s extra — and I’m positive everybody on the Hawks’ 53-man roster is sick of them. You know Pom Pom Pete’s practices have been glorified pep rallies all week, and he’s been sprinting round, screaming, and clapping like a lunatic.
Usually, the primary recreation of Wild Card weekend is the Thursday Night Football of the bunch. (Are we positive this isn’t on Amazon?) But cease treating it prefer it’s TCU-Georgia, though technically I’m doing that. These are NFL rosters. How many occasions did you get fucked by a double-digit favourite this season alone?
I’m simply saying don’t be shocked if the sport everybody least expects to be shut finally ends up much more aggressive than the consultants lead you to consider.