With three weeks left within the common season, the Philadelphia Eagles have all however locked up the highest seed within the NFC, needing only one win or a loss from each the Minnesota Vikings and San Francisco 49ers with the intention to safe home-field benefit by means of the NFC Championship and a first-round bye. With that in thoughts, the Eagles want to start out fascinated about their schedule after the common season, or extra precisely, their divisional opponents’ schedules within the postseason.
Nobody needs to face a divisional foe within the playoffs. Those groups know you higher than anybody else, and that’s the place fluke losses occur most frequently. The Eagles’ lone loss this yr? To none aside from the last-place Washington Commanders. The 49ers have overwhelmed the Rams eight straight occasions within the common season. Who gained within the postseason final yr although? That’s proper, the Rams. Divisional matchups are so arduous to foretell as a result of these groups play one another so typically, they know each trick up their opponent’s sleeves. They’ve turn into accustomed to how one another operates. Therefore, it stands to motive that if the Eagles had their method, they wouldn’t must face the Dallas Cowboys, New York Giants, or Commanders in any respect within the playoffs.
That might be powerful contemplating all three groups are within the working for a playoff spot nonetheless, however it’s attainable. The most blatant options could be:
1) The Cowboys, Giants, and Commanders not making the playoffs within the first place,
2) All of them dropping within the first spherical, or
3) Ensuring the 7-seed isn’t an NFC East staff and wins its first-round matchup.
That first possibility is just about unattainable. At least one different staff from the NFC East goes to make the playoffs. It’s very seemingly two do. Option two is simply barely much less seemingly. Yes, all three NFC East groups, ought to they make it, must play on the street, and whereas the Niners, Vikings, and Bucs — or whoever finally ends up successful the dogshit NFC South — may all win, the chances of these three popping out victorious are low. That leaves possibility three.
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The NFL playoffs don’t have a hard and fast bracket system, which means the Eagles, because the 1-seed, will play the bottom remaining seed within the NFC playoff bracket after the Wild Card Round. The greatest method to make sure that Philly gained’t must play a divisional opponent within the Divisional Round could be to make sure the 7-seed wins their first matchup of the playoffs. That would be sure that the 5-seed Cowboys and 6-seed Giants or Commanders wouldn’t be capable of play Philadelphia in Round 2. This, in fact, hinges on the truth that no NFC East staff can wind up the 7-seed.
What’s the answer? Lose to the Cowboys this weekend, securing them the 5-seed, after which in Week 18 — when the Eagles face the Giants for the second time — relaxation your starters, let the Giants win, and safe the 6-seed. As lengthy because the Commanders lose one among their closing three video games, that one win for New York could be sufficient to safe them the 6-seed.
That would go away the 7-seed right down to the Commanders, Detroit Lions, and Seattle Seahawks. Although the Commanders have a half-game lead for that place, they nonetheless must face the 49ers and Cowboys this yr, in the meantime, the Lions’ three remaining video games are all in opposition to groups beneath .500, two of which they’ve already overwhelmed this yr.
Of course, the Eagles could be treading a wonderful line with this methodology. For one, dropping two video games on objective would imply the Eagles would both must win their solely different recreation — Week 17 vs. New Orleans — or they’d must put their religion within the 49ers and Vikings to lose one recreation every. Obviously, when given the chance, you all the time need the prospect to manage your individual future, however you additionally don’t wish to financial institution a whole plan on successful one explicit recreation. “Any given Sunday” is a saying for a motive, and whereas the Eagles ought to wipe the ground with the Saints, something can occur.
Okay, so assuming the Eagles’ plan comes collectively completely, they’d nonetheless want the 7-seed to beat the 2-seed Minnesota Vikings. Well, the Detroit Lions have overwhelmed them as soon as already this yr and have been even main by 10 going into the fourth quarter of their first matchup. The Lions have gotten higher because the season has worn on, and there’s probability they may beat Minnesota within the opening spherical if given the chance to play them once more.
Even if Detroit doesn’t win although, pinning Dallas in opposition to Tampa Tom, and New York in opposition to arguably probably the most proficient all-around roster within the NFL in San Francisco, remains to be a dependable methodology to make sure Philly gained’t must play any of its divisional opponents within the postseason. Several folks consider the Vikings are the worst staff of the division leaders within the NFC. Minnesota haters like to level out the Vikes’ embarrassing losses to the Eagles and Cowboys earlier this yr, in addition to DVOA and level differential, as causes to consider the Vikings are frauds. If the Eagles consider these sentiments as nicely, then forcing their divisional opponents to play the opposite two division winners could be their smartest plan of action.
I’m not saying the Eagles are going to lose in opposition to the Cowboys and Giants. No staff likes dropping, and doing it on objective feels counterproductive within the locker room, however based mostly on the state of affairs, dropping these video games could be the staff’s best choice. I’m not saying it’s fairly, however it might be fairly rattling sensible. And the Eagles are a really sensible staff.