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For the second week in a row, the Chicago Bears have acquired essentially the most moneyline bets of any underdog for Week 16. According to OddsChecker US, that is truly the fourth time this 12 months they’ve earned this distinction, going 1-2 of their earlier three video games below the identical pretenses. This week, very similar to final week, the Bears are nine-point underdogs. This time to the Buffalo Bills.
I get it. Justin Fields has been incredible, however as soon as once more, this can be a idiot’s errand. Could the Bears catch the Bills abruptly and win outright? Sure, nevertheless it’d be a lot safer and smarter to wager on the unfold. Nine factors is loads, and had bettors wager the unfold in final week’s recreation in opposition to Philadelphia, they might’ve walked away richer. People haven’t realized their lesson although it appears. Last week, 65 p.c of moneyline bets went in favor of Chicago. This week, 62 p.c of bets are moving into favor of Chicago. STOP! They haven’t received in seven weeks! SEVEN! Why do you assume the streak will finish in opposition to a unique favourite to win the Super Bowl?
Do you recognize what the Bills’ magic quantity to clinch the AFC East is? One. They solely want one win or a Miami loss so as to safe a division title. When the Bills are this shut, they’re going to take this recreation very significantly. They usually are not going to miss Chicago.
Now, if the schedule was slightly totally different, I may see the place this was going. If Miami performed on Saturday, or simply at an earlier hour than the Bills, I may see a Chicago win. If Miami misplaced, then the Bills may simply determine to relaxation a few of their starters. The stress of being so near profitable the division can be alleviated and maybe the Bills would take their foot off the fuel. I believe that’d be a dumb transfer since they’re nonetheless within the working for the No. 1 seed (and thus, a first-round bye), however I may see it occurring. As it stands, the Bills play an entire day earlier than Miami does, so Buffalo goes to make their very own future and blow the brakes off the Bears who don’t have anything to play for aside from a worse draft decide.
Furthermore, the Bills are a greater matchup for the Bears than the Eagles. The Bears depend on the bottom recreation to tempo their offense. Buffalo has allowed fewer complete rush yards, fewer yards per rush, and fewer dashing touchdowns than the Eagles. While Philly has allowed the third-most dashing yards to quarterbacks all season, the Bills have allowed the tenth fewest. They’re additionally one among solely two groups to haven’t allowed a single dashing landing to quarterbacks all 12 months (the Pittsburgh Steelers being the opposite).
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On the opposite facet of the ball, the Bears have allowed the eighth-most rush yards to opposing quarterbacks and essentially the most dashing touchdowns. Yeah, the Bills don’t have a stable run recreation, however their quarterback is their only rusher and the Bears haven’t proven a capability to cease such an assault. They’re a mediocre move protection and have finished atrociously unhealthy in opposition to elite extensive receivers this season. Tyreek Hill went for 7-143-1 in opposition to Chicago a couple of weeks in the past. Amon-Ra St. Brown went for 10-119. CeeDee Lamb had a low-end day in opposition to Chicago, posting only a 5-77-1 line. Wow! How horrible, proper? AJ Brown: 9-181. Justin Jefferson: 12-154. Now, they get Stefon Diggs. What makes you assume he’ll get bottled up?
The Bears play robust. I wouldn’t be shocked in the event that they make this a one-possession recreation. But profitable outright can be a humiliation on Buffalo’s finish, and I don’t anticipate Josh Allen, Sean McDermott, or anybody on the Bills’ sideline to let that occur. Anything can occur, sure, however for my cash, I’m taking that +9 unfold over the moneyline any day of the week. If the Bears win, nice! We each win, however I received’t be sweating your complete recreation.
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