There’s no higher feeling on this planet than risking little or no cash and profitable a boatload of money. It’s why parlays have change into so standard in the previous few years. Why make $100 on a $100 wager, when you can make $10,000 simply by choosing six extra video games accurately, proper?!
That hope that large cash might come from across the nook at any second is what makes a few of us sometimes put cash on probably the most insane outcomes. This week, it’s the Houston Texans. Despite being a 17-point underdog, 60 p.c of bets positioned on the moneyline of their upcoming sport in opposition to the Dallas Cowboys have gone in favor of Houston. According to OddsChecker US, the Cowboys have a 92.6 p.c probability of profitable this sport, but bettors appear inclined to succeed in for the huge Houston +1125 odds, that means a $100 wager would earn the bettor an extra $1125 on high of their unique funding.
Now, from strictly a historic standpoint, this doesn’t look like a nasty wager on the floor. Houston gained its final assembly in opposition to Dallas. The Cowboys have by no means overwhelmed the Texans in Dallas, and simply final 12 months, the Texans gained two video games the place they had been double-digit underdogs. Furthermore, the Texans have solely misplaced one sport by greater than 17 all 12 months — Week 7 on the Las Vegas Raiders. Houston had 5 such video games in 2021, and though their file isn’t nearly as good via 13 weeks, they’ve had much more “close” video games (should you take into account two touchdowns and a discipline purpose shut) in 2022.
So, with that mentioned, don’t you suppose it’d be sensible to wager the unfold as a substitute of the moneyline? Huh? It’s only a thought. The Texans couldn’t beat the Broncos, Bears, or Colts (yeah, that was a tie), so what makes you suppose they may beat arguably probably the most full crew within the NFC? “Oh, well it’s just a prayer,” says the delusional bettor with cash burning a gap of their pocket. Yeah, and me praying for a ship has about the identical probability of coming true. Obviously, that’s an exaggeration, but it surely’s not too far off.
The final time a crew was favored by 17 or extra factors and misplaced was 2020, when the Sam Darnold-led New York Jets took down the Los Angeles Rams 23-20, however even these Jets got higher odds for victory (+1100) than the Texans (+1125). Prior to that sport, groups favored by 17 or extra had been 101-10 straight up, and the proportion hasn’t gotten a lot better since that eleventh loss.
I’m not saying it’s inconceivable for the Texans to win, but it surely’s extremely, extremely unlikely. Since 2005, solely the 2020 Jets and 2019 Dolphins have gained after being 17-point underdogs or worse. Every different underdog of that magnitude in that span is 0-27, however altogether, these 29 groups are 14-14-1 in opposition to the unfold.
DO YOU SEE WHAT I’M SAYING?!
Despite the current development of 17-point underdogs overcoming the chances to take down Goliath, historical past will not be on their aspect. If you actually consider the Texans have a shot at profitable however are anxious about placing critical cash on it, perhaps take into account proposing an alternate line to your bookie. Maybe Texans +10.5 or +7. That’ll nonetheless offer you a superb payout if it occurs, and it’s much more doubtless than QB Davis Mills, who simply acquired retook his beginning job from Kyle Allen, taking down the most effective defenses within the league.
That mentioned, the Cowboys have gained 4 video games this 12 months by greater than 17 factors, and people had been a lot better groups than Houston. If any crew can come out of the tunnel and all of a sudden determine they need to decimate their opponents, it’s Dallas. While I love the boldness to wager on such an enormous underdog in an effort to win large cash shortly, the Texans are large underdogs for a cause. Barring a miracle, individuals will as soon as once more see why the Texans suck tomorrow at 1 pm ET.