Take a have a look at the present NFL standings, would you? How many groups are above .500 with less-than-optimal conditions beneath middle? The New York Jets, New England Patriots, and Tennessee Titans are all on the playoff bubble and have all both endured mediocre-to-poor quarterback play, and the Titans even have an out in Ryan Tannehill’s contract forward of the 2023 season. In the NFC, the New York Giants, Washington Commanders, and San Francisco 49ers have all skilled large success with out a nice possibility beneath middle. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers may very well be with out Tom Brady subsequent yr. The Atlanta Falcons have remained in playoff rivalry regardless of Marcus Mariota being their signal-caller. You get the purpose. There are a whole lot of groups who appear to be a quarterback away from being an elite franchise.
We’ve simply handed the two-thirds level of the 2022 season. Rumors have already begun circling social media regarding the likes of Daniel Jones, Zach Wilson, and Derek Carr. Carr is undoubtedly one of the best of the bunch, and with the Las Vegas Raiders performing under their expectations this yr, it appears Carr may very well be on the transfer forward of 2023. (He has, nevertheless, stated he desires to stay a Raider). So, which groups are essentially the most attractive for these quarterbacks who may very well be in probably new locations, and which groups are most inclined to commerce up for one of many younger stars within the draft? That’s what we’re aiming for right here.
The Giants and Jets are the most definitely groups to commerce up within the draft for a brand new quarterback. Sure, they’re each taking part in nicely this yr, however neither group is able to compete for a Super Bowl with an above-average signal-caller in Carr or Jimmy Garoppolo — though I don’t assume he’ll be going anyplace given Lance’s fragility and the success the Niners have seen to this point. The Giants at present have an additional third-round decide because of the Kadarius Toney commerce and would doubtless supply a couple of firsts and that additional third in change for a top-three decide. Given that there are solely three quarterbacks extensively considered game-changers within the upcoming draft — Ohio State’s CJ Stroud, Alabama’s Bryce Young, and Kentucky’s Will Levis — the Seattle Seahawks, who at present maintain the No. 3 decide, and the Chicago Bears, who at present maintain the No. 2 decide, can be essentially the most smart commerce companions since each groups have already got their quarterbacks of the long run. Sure, there’s nonetheless an opportunity that the Seahawks might transfer on from Geno Smith, however the group has so many holes that should be stuffed at different positions, that even with their abundance of draft picks in 2023 and past, accruing much more isn’t a nasty possibility, and if the proper supply got here alongside, I’m positive they’d be prepared to let Smith begin for no less than yet another season.
With each the AFC and NFC East wanting just like the hardest divisions in soccer, I might count on the Giants and Jets to make laborious pushes for top-3 picks. Where does that go away Derek Carr although? Well, until the Raiders have a transparent plan of assault to switch Carr, the worth for the previous Pro Bowler may very well be too excessive for any group seeking to improve at QB. Should Tom Brady select to hold up his cleats after this season, the Bucs seem to be a group that may be interested by sustaining solid-level quarterback play as even with out Brady, they’d nonetheless doubtless compete for an NFC South title. The New Orleans Saints are in the same boat. Despite fairly underwhelming play from Andy Dalton — opposite to what PFF would possibly inform you — they’ve managed to look succesful at occasions and with a extra dynamic passer, they might compete for an NFC South title, particularly if Brady retires after this season.
The Saints are already in bother through the draft after buying and selling up for Chris Olave final yr, so why not use this yr’s draft as a wash to commerce for a substantial improve at quarterback? I imply, they might take a shot on projected second-round picks like University of Tennessee’s Hendon Hooker, Stanford’s Tanner McKee, Florida’s Anthony Richardson, or University of Miami’s Tyler van Dyke, however Carr would include the fewest query marks, and if the Saints need to win proper now, Carr is perhaps their best choice. That stated, New Orleans can also be in cap hell. As of proper now, they are going to be almost $63.5 million within the purple for 2023. Carr’s cap hit in 2023 will probably be $34,875,000. That isn’t precisely a really perfect state of affairs, and if the Saints can’t pull the identical magic they did a couple of years in the past once they cleared $111 million in cap area seemingly in a single day, then the cash might push New Orleans away from Carr.
Other groups that may very well be interested by Carr embody the Titans (barring any main resolution on Tannehill), the Detroit Lions, the New England Patriots (though I’d by no means count on Belichick to make a transfer like this), and naturally, the Raiders. Frankly, I don’t assume Carr has performed that horrendously this yr. I imagine a lot of the Raiders’ offensive woes fall on head coach Josh McDaniels’ shoulders coupled with accidents to each Darren Waller and Hunter Renfrow. The Raiders had been imagined to have one of the intimidating passing assaults within the NFL this yr. Their second-leading receiver is Mack Hollins, who’d began solely eight video games in his profession previous to 2022.
Las Vegas doesn’t have the cash to fireside Josh McDaniels, and thus, it’s straightforward to imagine Carr’s struggles would proceed into 2023 if he stays with the group. That’s all of the extra incentive to commerce him away.
Most studies assume that Carr would draw a second-round decide and a few if traded away. The Raiders are a cash-poor group and in want of some modifications on offense. With the myriad of gifted QBs projected to go within the second spherical within the upcoming draft, having a number of picks in that spherical might remedy the Raiders’ points. Therefore, I discover it extra doubtless that Carr is traded than not. Although it’s very troublesome to guess which group would take a shot on Carr in the meanwhile, the Raiders ought to make each effort to maneuver on from him.