The Los Angeles Chargers are an excellent soccer workforce. Even within the absence of Keenan Allen and Mike Williams for components of the season, the downfall of JC Jackson, and the abysmal play of Jerry Tiller on the D-line — fortunately he simply bought waived — the Chargers have performed their solution to a 5-3 document and are very a lot within the thick of a division title on the midway level of the season.
This weekend, the Bolts play the San Francisco 49ers in SoCal in what appears to be like like an entertaining matchup between two low-end Super Bowl contenders. In actuality, although, San Francisco ought to completely wipe the ground with L.A. Not as a result of the Chargers’ document is healthier than their precise efficiency, however somewhat as a result of the 49ers match up phenomenally nicely.
Let’s begin with the elephant within the room, the issue everyone seems to be speaking about — the Chargers’ run protection. It’s no secret that Los Angeles does about as nicely at stopping the run because the NFL does at imposing roughing the passer. The offseason addition of Khalil Mack was speculated to mitigate this downside, since Mack had been the most effective edge defenders in opposition to the run for a few years. He’s been good, however the remainder of the D-line has been underperforming, and people struggles have been amplified with the absence of All-Pro cross rusher Joey Bosa. The Chargers are permitting probably the most yards per rush of any workforce within the NFL (5.7). They’re second within the NFL in EPA allowed per rush play as nicely, solely forward of the Cleveland Browns in that division.
Now, the Niners haven’t been an elite speeding workforce this 12 months. In truth, they’ve been under common when it comes to each EPA and whole yards, however make no mistake, the 49ers’ identification is as a run-heavy workforce, and with Christian McCaffrey suiting up for his third recreation with the workforce, San Fran’s speeding assault may very well be an excessive amount of for the Chargers to deal with, even with the absence of left deal with Trent Williams.
Now, the 49ers’ secondary is a little bit suspect. While lots of the Niners’ trustworthy have been anticipating cornerback Jason Verrett to return quickly, he as an alternative suffered a season-ending Achilles harm in observe this week. Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert ought to have a straightforward time dissecting that banged-up secondary, however with each Keenan Allen and Mike Williams lacking this recreation, it may come all the way down to Joshua Palmer, DeAndre Carter, and Gerald Everett to hold the L.A. passing assault. I don’t belief any of them to do severe harm.
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The Chargers’ rushing attack hasn’t been any better. While Austin Ekeler is one of the best backs in the league, he hasn’t been very efficient as a ball carrier. Rather, he’s done most of his damage through the air. That said, San Fran linebacker Fred Warner is one of the best in the NFL at following the ball out of the backfield and making open-field tackles. Ekeler could be in for heavy usage this game, but I wouldn’t expect him to get very far very often. Could he break one or two plays for large gains/touchdowns? Sure, but the 49ers are one of the best teams in the NFL at defending plays out of the backfield.
According to OddsChecker US, bettors disagree with my sentiment. Despite the betting line shifting within the 49ers’ favor over the course of the week — from +5.5 at opening to +7 at the moment — 65 % of moneyline bets have gone in favor of Los Angeles. This is the primary time since Week 3 of 2021 in opposition to Kansas City that the Chargers have been a landing underdog or worse. Perhaps that strong monitor document is what’s pushing bettors towards the Bolts. Or maybe it’s the Chargers’ dominance over the 49ers within the twenty first century. L.A. has gained 4 of its final 5 in opposition to San Francisco. Still, previous outcomes don’t point out future outcomes. Brandon Staley wasn’t even the Chargers’ head coach the final time these two groups performed.
With an emphasis on brief passes, energy runs, and effectivity out of the backfield, the 49ers are arguably the worst workforce the Chargers may face all 12 months. Could they win? Absolutely. This is the NFL, and anybody can win on any given day. Also, I’m by no means going to be one hundred pc positive of a guess in opposition to Justin Herbert, however by each measure conceivable, San Fran ought to win this recreation. While bettors appear positive that seven factors are too many for the Chargers to lose by, I nearly imagine a double-digit loss isn’t out of the query. Then once more, the 49ers have a knack for shedding video games they shouldn’t — simply ask the Bears and Falcons — so possibly I’m studying an excessive amount of into this. I doubt it although.