The battle in Ukraine, from which Georgia anticipated a collapse of the economic system and a recession, fairly unexpectedly became financial progress, writes Haqqin from Azerbaijan. Cargo, Russian “nerds,” and {dollars} poured into the nation.
By Tengiz Ablotiyah
When you say the phrases: “To whom war and mother-in-law are dear,” they, as a rule, go away an disagreeable residue. Because instantly, there are associations with ethical lawlessness, looting, or one thing else unworthy.
Like somebody dies or turns into handicapped, and you utilize these troubles to line your pockets.
On the uncommon events when struggle introduced financial advantages to a state, its leaders had been embarrassed to confess it.
But typically, a struggle with none unfavourable context is absolutely “mother-in-law” as a result of it could fairly unexpectedly convey tangible financial preferences.
It would appear that yesterday you watched the battle unfolding with horror, calculated the losses, and grabbed your head in anticipation of the economic system’s collapse.
And then, abruptly, it was as if somebody up there understood the explanation to your fears and determined to assist.
In such instances, skilled writers use the expression “divine chance”. That’s the case we’re speaking about.
When the battle in Ukraine started, Georgian economists and specialists sadly predicted an imminent, complete financial disaster for the nation.
In truth, it was troublesome to accuse them of extreme pessimism since Russia and Ukraine – each by way of exports and tourism – are Georgia’s two largest buying and selling companions.
It was nonetheless attainable to bear the lack of one in all them.
But the simultaneous lack of the export markets of Russia and Ukraine, in addition to the whole and even partial cessation of the availability of air from the oxygen cushion referred to as “tourism”, threatened Georgia with the collapse of the nationwide economic system for a very long time.
As if anticipating the upcoming scarcity of greenback money, the nationwide foreign money of the Georgians floated within the route of infinity, dropping in some two or three days from 2.8 to three.4 lari per greenback.
And since there was nothing to cease the free fall of the nationwide foreign money, clouds of hyperinflation started to thicken over the monetary system of Georgia.
In brief, solely a miracle may save the Georgian monetary system and the nation’s economic system, which even youngsters don’t imagine in in our pragmatic occasions.
And then out of the blue, fairly unexpectedly for everybody, planes from completely different cities of Russia started to land one after one other on the Tbilisi airport, full of younger folks with the looks of traditional “nerds” – matted glasses with pals, with wives, usually with canine, much less usually with youngsters, and largely singles.
And if, at first, few folks understood what was truly taking place, then after just a few days, the amazed Georgians realized with piercing obviousness: These “nerds” with Russian passports and laptops underneath their armpits at the moment are their new compatriots.
At least for some time.
There could be no happiness, however misfortune would assist. In brief, Georgia in a single day turned one of many facilities of mass Russian emigration.
Georgians, shocked unexpectedly, silently watched as new expats lined up for financial institution accounts, ran looking for rented housing, changing into dearer each hour, on the lookout for appropriate meals for his or her canine and cats …
And then a second shock adopted, which additionally collapsed on the heads of Georgians with none warning– alternating photos of multi-kilometer queues of freight transport lined up on the borders of Georgia out of the blue appeared on the airwaves of native and overseas tv firms.
And not that it immediately struck my compatriots – congestion on the borders has all the time been a well-known and even routine sight.
But what occurred after the sudden inflow of “nerds” was already buying an epic character, approaching the dimensions of a humanitarian disaster.
Not solely customs officers but additionally the heads of the Georgian ports, from Poti to Batumi, which had been packed to the restrict, spoke about border congestion, during which cargo merely didn’t have time to be processed, and wagons with items stood unloaded on spare tracks for a number of weeks …
As it turned out, a part of the transit from Central Asia and China went due to the sanctions in opposition to Russia within the South Caucasus, that’s, by means of Azerbaijan and Georgia, which had been fully unprepared for this transport of “manna from heaven”.
Let’s be trustworthy: in lots of respects, this unpreparedness was of an goal nature – neither Baku nor Tbilisi, even in probably the most optimistic forecasts of their economists, anticipated such a speedy progress in cargo visitors.
And not stretched in time, because it often occurs, however avalanche-like, which hit the Azerbaijan and Georgia transport programs in simply two or three weeks …
At first, the Georgian folks didn’t perceive something in any respect.
Unlike its nationwide foreign money, which instantly started to strengthen.
And so rapidly, nobody even had time to ask: “Hey, government and national bank, will you at least explain what is happening?!”
And what occurred was that in simply two or three weeks, the lari not solely returned from 3.4 to 2.7 per greenback but additionally crawled even decrease.
Yes, it strengthened so unequivocally that the National Bank of Georgia needed to urgently promote greater than US$100 million available on the market in order that the lari, God forbid, wouldn’t grow to be stronger than the nationwide foreign money of the United States.
Well, over time, got here an understanding of the dimensions of each phenomena.
From March to September this yr, 112,000 residents of the Russian Federation and about 30,000 residents of the Republic of Belarus moved to Georgia.
We are silent about Ukrainians, most of them are refugees, so it will be ridiculous and unethical to count on any contribution to the Georgian economic system from them.
In just some months, Georgia’s inhabitants of three.7 million has grown by about 150,000, largely younger, energetic, educated, and inventive folks.
Most of them continued to work “remotely”, and their very massive salaries at the moment are spent not in Moscow and Novosibirsk however in Tbilisi and Batumi.
Moreover, rich Russians open a enterprise in Georgia, purchase residences right here and switch their capital to Georgian banks.
In January-March 2022, a mean of US$24 million was transferred from Russia to Georgia each month, and since April, US$133 million has already been transferred.
Remittances from Russia to Georgia reached a document excessive in May of $314 million. In complete, within the first 9 months of 2022, US$1.135 billion was despatched from Russia to Georgia.
In 2022, Russian residents bought greater than three thousand residences in Georgia, and within the interval from March to September, about 9,500 Russian firms had been registered in Georgia, which is ten occasions greater than in the entire of 2021.
Thus, on the instance of easy and non-comment-free figures, it’s attainable to grasp how the battle may grow to be a “native mother” for Georgian banks and its actual property market, tourism, eating places, and different companies.
As for the state of affairs with transit, all the things just isn’t so easy since we’re speaking about extra delicate issues – modifications on this market are far more troublesome to trace.
At the second, it is just identified that transit by means of the “Middle Corridor” territory has grown by 30 p.c, and that is solely the start.
If Azerbaijan and Georgia handle to unravel the infrastructural difficulties that inevitably come up with such a rush, the transit circulate will definitely develop.
The battle in Ukraine, from which Georgia anticipated an financial collapse and recession, fairly unexpectedly became an financial progress of 10 p.c.
And now inform me: who on Feb. 24, 2022, may have predicted such a improvement of occasions?
Perhaps somebody will say that I contradict myself and that rising financial progress on the expense of deaths, mass destruction, and damaged existences accompanying any armed battle, together with the battle in Ukraine, is immoral.
To justify Georgia and Azerbaijan, I can say just one factor: the financial progress of our international locations is on no account related both with Russia’s help in circumventing financial sanctions or with another actions that may assist Russia or hurt Ukraine.
And then, when this battle started, neither Azerbaijan nor Georgia requested about something.