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When the Cincinnati Bengals tackle the Kansas City Chiefs within the 2023 AFC Championship Game, it will likely be the fourth time these sides have confronted off over a 12-month span. Joe Burrow and Zac Taylor have gotten the higher of Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid on the earlier three events, and have extra wins in opposition to the Mahomes period Chiefs than anybody else within the NFL.
Three consecutive wins in opposition to the Kansas City juggernaut is undoubtedly spectacular and will suggest dominance, however the actuality is that this rising rivalry has been extremely shut. All three Bengals wins have come by a discipline objective, and twice they wanted to rally from a halftime double-digit deficit. Cincinnati’s solely had 4 offensive possessions whereas holding a lead, in comparison with 13 for Kansas City.
But there are a couple of components at play that assist clarify why the Bengals have been capable of come out victorious on every event, they usually all loom giant this Sunday.
Cincinnati has gained the turnover battle
The Bengals have taken distinctive care of the ball, turning it over solely as soon as in three conferences—a Joe Burrow interception in final yr’s AFC Championship Game—and the protection held the Chiefs to a three-and-out on the following possession. Meanwhile, Kansas City’s three giveaways couldn’t have been extra pricey:
2022 AFC Championship: A 3rd quarter Patrick Mahomes interception leads to Bengals possession at Kansas City’s 27-yard line. Cincinnati scores a landing and two-point conversion to tie the sport at 21-21.
2022 AFC Championship: Another Mahomes interception in extra time provides Cincinnati the ball at their very own 45-yard line, and in the end kick the game-winning discipline objective.
2022 common season: Leading 24-20 within the fourth quarter, Travis Kelce loses a fumble and the Bengals achieve possession at their very own 47-yard line. Cincinnati scores the game-winning landing with 8:54 left in regulation.
Turnovers have been a season-long drawback for Kansas City in 2022. The Chiefs had a -3 in turnover differential within the common season, in comparison with the Bengals’ stellar +6. In postseason play, Cincy’s turnover margin is a staggering +9 courting again to final yr.
Cincinnati’s late-game execution has been superior
The fourth quarter (and extra time) has belonged to the Bengals on either side of the ball. They have outscored the Chiefs 26-6 within the ultimate interval, the most important level differential between the 2 groups in any quarter.
2021 common season: The Chiefs’ solely failure to attain a pink zone landing occurred within the fourth quarter whereas trailing 31-28. The Bengals acquired the ball again tied 31-31 with six minutes left, improbably transformed a 3rd and 27 shot play to Ja’Marr Chase, and acquired into discipline objective vary. A loopy sequence of occasions that included consecutive Chiefs penalties on 4th and objective on the 1-yard line allowed the Bengals, who have been making an attempt to attain a landing to stop Mahomes from solely needing a discipline objective to drive extra time, to as an alternative run the clock down and kick the successful discipline objective at 0:00.
2022 AFC Championship: Pretty a lot touched upon within the earlier part with Mahomes’ interceptions, however lest we neglect Kansas City was 5 yards away from successful on the finish of regulation. The Bengals protection sacked Mahomes twice, inflicting a fumble on the second sack, and the Chiefs needed to accept extra time.
2022 common season: In addition to the aforementioned Kelce fumble, Chiefs kicker Harrison Butker missed a game-tying discipline objective, giving Cincinnati the ball again with 3:19 left. After Kansas City exhausted its timeouts, Joe Burrow transformed a 3rd and 5 go to Ja’Marr Chase, then on the opposite facet of the two-minute warning made a 3rd and 11 throw to Tee Higgins to seal the deal.
Kansas City’s protection has been no match for the Bengals offense
If there’s any indication of 1 unit dominating the opposition, it’s the Bengals offense in opposition to the Chiefs protection. Cincinnati has averaged 421 yards, scoring on 17 of their 27 possessions for a median of three.26 factors per drive. If you are taking out their end-of-game kneeldown drive on the finish of this yr’s common season win they’re scoring at a staggering 65.3% clip. They’ve additionally transformed 17 of 33 third-down makes an attempt and have had an equal or larger Expected Points Added (EPA) per play than Kansas City’s offense in every recreation.
Joe Burrow has accomplished 78 of 108 passes (72.2%) for 982 yards, 8 touchdowns (plus 1 speeding), and simply 1 interception. Star receiver Ja’Marr Chase has a mixed 24 catches for 417 yards and 4 touchdowns, together with an obscene 11/266/3 statline within the 2021 common season encounter. Running backs Semaje Perine and Joe Mixon have had 100+ scrimmage yard performances, and most significantly the offensive line has solely allowed two sacks and 7 QB hits within the final two video games.
Even if Mahomes was wholesome, the prevailing query forward of this Sunday’s matchup needs to be whether or not the Chiefs protection can successfully decelerate Joe Burrow and firm, as a result of up so far they’ve confirmed incapable of doing so.
The damage to Mahomes’ ankle will nearly definitely impression this yr’s AFC title, however up so far it’s clear that Cincinnati and Kansas City are two well-matched groups with little or no to separate them. So far, that “very little” has all been in Cincinnati’s favor. If historical past is a information, Mahomes’ ankle be damned, we’re in for one more dramatic ending at Burrowhead Arrowhead.
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