While Wild Card weekend lived as much as the title for the NFL, the divisional spherical had much less drama and pleasure. The Philadelphia Eagles blew out the New York Giants and the Cincinnati Bengals managed the Buffalo Bills. The Kansas City Chiefs needed to maintain on towards the Jacksonville Jaguars after Patrick Mahomes received damage, whereas protection dominated the day with the San Francisco 49ers up ending the Dallas Cowboys in a low-scoring affair.
Prior to the divisional spherical, we shared with you that one analytics information level had predicted the primary six video games of the playoffs. While the DVOA rankings (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) weren’t in a position to be good through the divisional spherical, it did predict three of the 4 video games appropriately:
- Philadelphia Eagles (third) beat the New York Giants (twenty first)
- San Francisco 49ers (2nd) beat the Dallas Cowboys (sixth)
- Kansas City Chiefs (4th) beat the Jacksonville Jaguars (thirteenth)
Where DVOA didn’t be predictive was the Cincinnati Bengals (fifth) defeating the Buffalo Bills (1st). The Bills shedding to a group that had simply over half the DVOA (18.1% to 35%) was stunning.
To be clear, DVOA isn’t good nor would it not declare to foretell the winners of sure video games. Too many variables that can not be codified, like climate, accidents, officiating and extra, can play a job in a one-game pattern. We nearly noticed how a significant damage, to Patrick Mahomes, allowed the Jaguars to remain in a recreation that the information mentioned shouldn’t be shut.
Given the accuracy of DVOA thus far within the playoffs (predicting 9 of 10 video games), we will’t assist however check out what it will train us about championship video games this weekend.
Kansas City Chiefs vs the Cincinnati Bengals
- Overall DVOA: Kansas City 4th vs Cincinnati fifth
- Offensive DVOA: Kansas City 1st vs Cincinnati 4th
- Defensive DVOA: Cincinnati eleventh vs Kansas City seventeenth
Edge: Chiefs – Two excellent offenses and two lesser defenses collide on this matchup. DVOA can’t keep in mind whether or not Mahomes is restricted however that issue, clearly, may play an enormous position in bringing the Chiefs top-ranked offense down
Philadelphia Eagles vs San Francisco 49ers
- Overall DVOA: San Francisco 2nd vs Philadelphia third
- Offensive DVOA: Philadelphia third vs San Francisco sixth
- Defensive DVOA: San Francisco 1st vs Philadelphia sixth
Edge: 49ers – Another very shut matchup the place each groups are top-10 on each offense and protection, resulting in their second and third rankings general. The distinction is that the Niners protection has a bigger hole than the Eagles offense does.
If what occurred throughout Wild Card weekend and the divisional spherical continues this week, we’re going to see two very intently contested video games this Sunday. The Mahomes damage throws the AFC matchup within the air however, assuming he’s near regular, the highest seed within the AFC will head to the Super Bowl whereas the second-seeded 49ers trip their protection to the large recreation.
While DVOA was predictive 90% of the time thus far this 12 months, a fast look again eventually 12 months offers a counterpoint for its predictive nature. The Super Bowl champion Los Angeles Rams have been the fifth-rated group whereas the Bengals have been all the way in which down at 17. The 4 highest-rated groups didn’t even make it to the championship video games final season.
Will DVOA have an ideal weekend once more after a hiccup final week or will Mahomes damage, Joe Burrow’s dominance over Kansas City, Philadelphia’s offense or Brock Purdy’s limitations convey the analytics predictions again all the way down to earth?