2023 NFL Playoffs: How Jalen Hurts went from query mark to potential MVP

The Monday after Week 1 of the 2022 NFL common season was my first day as a full-time worker right here at SB Nation.

And sure, I used to be fairly nervous.

As a morning stuffed with conferences and orientation occasions wound down, it was time to start out working. I figured I’d ease into the day, and the season, with some low-hanging fruit:

Arguing why his debut in opposition to the Detroit Lions confirmed that Jalen Hurts was prepared to make the third-year leap.

The piece obtained, effectively, some combined evaluations. Some Philadelphia Eagles followers appreciated it, whereas others weren’t as satisfied.

But right here we’re, on the week of the Divisional Round of the NFL playoffs, and Hurts is able to begin his second playoff sport, this time because the quarterback — and MVP candidate — of the highest seed within the NFC.

Just how did we get right here?

There are myriad causes for the expansion of Hurts, and the Eagles, this season. General supervisor Howie Roseman deserves a ton of credit score, and our personal Mookie Alexander can be diving into that side of the Eagles’ season shortly. But let’s give attention to Hurts. Despite guiding the Eagles to a playoff berth in his first season because the beginning quarterback, Hurts was one of many greatest query marks going through the crew as 2022 loomed.

With every thing Roseman put in place across the quarterback, would Hurts take the leap?

It would appear that he has.

Hurts’ 2022 common season put him among the many NFL’s greatest in a number of passing metrics, and with the Eagles ending the common season with a 14-3 report – and the highest seed within the NFC – the QB vaulted into the MVP dialogue. Hurts completed fifth within the league with an Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt of seven.31, fifth within the league in Expected Points Added per Dropback, fifth within the league in Completion Percentage over Expectation, and third amongst passers in EPA/CPOE composite.

When you end up clustered with the likes of Joe Burrow, Patrick Mahomes, and Josh Allen, you’re in good firm:

Data compiled by RBSDM.com.

There are two large areas the place Hurts grew this 12 months that served as foundations for his improvement and rise into the MVP debate.

Let’s break them down.

Attacking the center of the sector

As a way of background, final season I co-hosted a podcast on Bleeding Green Radio with the extremely gifted Raichelle Privette, titled “The QB Factory.” Each week, Raichelle and I’d dive into Hurts, breaking down intimately how he carried out, what he did effectively, and the place he wanted to enhance.

Coming into the 2022 season, one of many areas the place Hurts wanted to point out development was in attacking the center of the sector.

Whether on account of scheme, consolation with the offense, his pocket administration – extra on that in a second – or another cause, Hurts struggled attacking defenses over the center.

For reference, right here is his 2021 passing grid from Next Gen Stats. Not that NFL Passer Rating is one of the best of metrics, but it surely does present a place to begin for this dialogue:

Looking at this chart, you may see how his numbers in the course of the sector – an NFL Passer Rating of 99.7 between 10 and 20 yards downfield – have been nonetheless above-average, however lagged behind a few of his success in different areas of the sector. When you take into account the two-high world we live in, discovering success in attacking that space of the sector is vital for an offense.

Now let’s check out Hurts’ 2022 passing grid:

As you may see, Hurts has actually improved when attacking this space of the sector. Now the Eagles are able to really stress a protection, and pressure them to defend “every blade of grass.”

Plays like this completion from Week 15 present Hurts’ development and luxury in attacking the center of the sector this season:

On this completion in opposition to the Chicago Bears, Hurts targets DeVonta Smith on a dig route in the course of the sector. The very first thing that stands out is the timing on this throw, as Hurts lets this cross fly as Smith is popping out of his break. But Hurts additionally must layer this throw, dropping it over the beneath defenders, and in entrance of the cornerback breaking on the route. The timing, plus the trajectory of the throw, result in an enormous achieve for the Eagles.

Here in opposition to the Tennessee Titans in Week 13, Hurts gives one other instance of his development and luxury in attacking the center of the sector. Tennessee drops into Cover 2 on this play, and the Eagles assault the protection with 4 vertical routes. But pay attention to the center linebacker, who’s the “runner” between the safeties, to assist defend the center of the sector. That defender slides to the correct facet of the offense, away from tight finish Jack Stoll, who’s working a vertical route out of the left slot.

Hurts sees this, and makes an anticipation throw over the opposite linebacker to Stoll:

The anticipation Hurts reveals on this throw illustrates how comfy he’s attacking defenses over the center. Hurts confirmed flashes of this throughout 2021 however has grown comfy stressing defenses on this space of the sector, forcing defenders to account for each route, each receiver, and each blade of grass.

Of course, the addition of A.J. Brown has additionally been a lift on this space. Brown is an elite receiver, and his mixture of dimension, power, and fearlessness makes him a harmful goal when working over the center.

As you see right here on a dig route in opposition to the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 8:

Hurts’ consolation in attacking the center of the sector, mixed with the presence of Brown working that space, has been large for the Eagles this season.

Pocket Management

For many Eagles followers, how Hurts dealt with life within the pocket was the largest space of concern heading into 2022. Hurts, like many athletic passers, faces a quandary within the NFL. For the majority of his soccer life, Hurts has been one in all – if not one of the best – athletes on the sector each time he laced up the cleats.

Meaning, if an idea broke down, or he didn’t just like the look within the secondary, tucking and working typically resulted in an enormous play.

However, the extra you progress within the sport, the higher and higher the athletes on the opposite facet of the ball are, and the extra harmful life outdoors the pocket turns into. For Hurts to take that subsequent step as a quarterback, he needed to stability that athleticism, and his capability to create, with a willingness to remain within the pocket at instances, give ideas an opportunity to develop, and struggle somewhat than flee.

This is one other space the place he has improved, and whereas the method started final 12 months, notably down the stretch, it continued into 2022. You can see that willingness to remain and struggle within the pocket on performs like this one from Week 10, in opposition to the Washington Commanders:

Hurts opens as much as the left facet of the formation, to learn out a two-receiver idea. But with these choices lined, he will get his eyes to the center of the sector, selecting up Quez Watkins on the bottom dig route. As that is taking place, the Commanders are blitzing each linebackers. While the Hurts of 2020, and even early 2021, might need pulled this down and appeared for an escape route, this 12 months’s model of the passer hung within the pocket, acquired to his third choice on the idea, and made a throw to maneuver the chains on third down.

Against the Arizona Cardinals in Week 4, Hurts once more confirmed the type of pocket poise Philadelphia followers have been clamoring for. With the Eagles going through a third and 12, Hurts opens to the left to learn out one other two-receiver idea, with DeVonta Smith on a curl route and Kenneth Gainwell on a path to the flat. Seeing this lined, Hurts flips his eyes to the center of the sector, selecting up Dallas Goedert on a sit route over the center.

Again, Hurts does this within the face of strain, because the Cardinals deliver a blitz off the left edge:

The poise from Hurts on this play results in one other third-down conversion.

Again, moments like this have been a part of that debut piece right here at SB Nation referenced earlier. Hurts started the 12 months displaying the type of poise within the pocket Eagles followers have been hoping to see this 12 months. That continued in Week 2 in opposition to the Minnesota Vikings, on this third-down conversion early within the sport:

This was one other third-and-long scenario, with the Eagles going through third and 13. Hurts hangs within the pocket, giving the curl route from Brown to interrupt open close to the first-down marker. Rather than pull the soccer down, he offers the idea the time to develop, and the offense picks up an enormous first down early within the sport.

Hurts confirmed nice strides down the stretch final 12 months in dealing with life within the pocket. While it remained a query mark surrounding his sport as 2022 started, it’s a query that he put to mattress early this 12 months.

Last 12 months, Hurts and the Eagles have been large underdogs because the playoffs started, and so they have been outmatched within the Wild Card spherical in opposition to the defending Super Bowl champions.

This 12 months, nonetheless, is a a lot totally different story. The Eagles are the highest seed within the NFC and are thought-about by many to be probably the most full groups within the NFL.

Hurts, and the strides he made this season, are large the explanation why.