If the playoffs have been beginning proper now, the New England Patriots can be the AFC’s sixth seed. They’d get an opening-round matchup with the Tennessee Titans, adopted by a probable highway gig in opposition to the Kansas City Chiefs. It’s a tricky path within the already daunting American Football Conference. That mentioned, if any crew goes to return out of the AFC that isn’t the Chiefs, Bills, or Dolphins, I’ve a sneaky suspicion the Patriots may very well be that crew.
Let me make one factor clear. Mac Jones isn’t a Super Bowl-caliber quarterback. He’s not elite in any metric. As it’s wanting proper now, he’ll by no means be the man that helps the Patriots win the AFC East. That mentioned, they don’t appear to want that. New England solely wants a stout protection, good offensive line play, and a bunch of operating backs able to methodically pushing the ball downfield. Guess what? The Pats have the entire above.
All New England wants is for his or her protection to maintain it within the sport, and that’s been the case all season. The solely video games the place it hasn’t been the case have been in opposition to the Bears and the Ravens. We’ll get to these in a second. New England has arguably the strongest protection within the league, and it’s been capable of maintain groups just like the Jets to twenty factors whole in two video games, the identical quantity the Jets scored of their lone sport in opposition to Buffalo, broadly thought of among the best defenses within the NFL. The Patriots did this all whereas not taking the Jets’ offense severely. Head coach Bill Belichick even admitted to wanting previous the Jets and onto the Vikings forward of their Week 11 matchup, and take into account, the Jets have been forward of the Patriots within the standings previous to this contest.
Now, the place the Pats appear to wrestle is in opposition to cell quarterbacks. They’ve solely had two video games this yr the place opponents have scored greater than 25 in regulation, the aforementioned Ravens and Bears. Both video games noticed the opposing quarterbacks rush for 107 and 82 yards respectively. New England is unimaginable at shutting down a passing sport. In reality, the Pats are permitting the fourth-fewest passing yards per sport and the second-lowest passer score of any protection within the league, however wrestle to comprise the quarterback as soon as he’s exterior the pocket. I need to emphasize too, it’s not that these quarterbacks are beating them via the air as soon as they get exterior the pocket. Baltimore’s Lamar Jackson ranks 14th in passer score exterior the pocket. Justin Fields ranks thirty first. Neither has been extremely efficient in that situation. It’s their legs.
The Patriots’ mixture of excessive blitz fee (28 p.c, which is Twelfth-highest within the NFL) and elite protection makes them very sack-happy (36, second-most within the NFL). They even have the very best QB hurry proportion within the NFL (14.8 p.c) and the second-highest strain fee (29.8 p.c). However, these tendencies additionally depart numerous room open forward of the road of scrimmage, and any elusive quarterback that may evade the strain can have numerous room to run. That makes guys like Lamar Jackson, Justin Fields, Jalen Hurts, Josh Allen, and possibly Patrick Mahomes all of the extra harmful in opposition to New England. At the identical time although, it makes guys who fold underneath strain like Kirk Cousins (lowest passer score underneath strain in NFL amongst certified QBs) appear like they’re seeing ghosts. That’s why I’m taking the Patriots in a landslide this Thanksgiving by the way in which.
Because of this, the Patriots even have an excellent matchup in opposition to a couple of of the AFC’s high contenders: Cincinnati, Tennessee, Miami (though they misplaced to them in Week 1, I really feel New England has improved since then), and Los Angeles. Those are all groups the Patriots might see within the playoffs. It’s simply as seemingly that New England faces Buffalo, Kansas City, or Baltimore and will get bounced within the Wild Card Round, but when the playing cards fall proper, they may do some severe injury.
The the rest of the Patriots’ schedule isn’t simple with two video games left in opposition to Buffalo and matchups with Cincinnati, Minnesota, and Miami nonetheless on the horizon. Those will likely be benchmark video games to find out the Pats’ viability within the postseason. It’s clear that if the Patriots need any likelihood of doing injury come mid-January, the offense should present indicators of life. That mentioned, there’s loads of purpose to be optimistic. If they’re wanting strong proper now with Mac Jones enjoying among the worst soccer of his life, they’ll completely be contenders if Jones positive factors slightly confidence down the ultimate stretch of the common season.