Unfortunately, Ali Soufan was proper. One yr in the past, shortly after the October 7 Hamas assault on Israel and the beginning of Israel’s army response, Soufan informed me that the occasions had “ushered in a new era of chaos to the region.” The fallout has seen the displacement of tens of millions of Gazans, the killing of Hamas chief Yahya Sinwar, a ceasefire settlement in Lebanon, and the overthrow of former Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad.
Yet for all of the demise and destruction, a lot continues to be unsettled—and the upcoming return of Donald Trump to the White House provides one other wildcard. Soufan has labored within the area for many years. As an FBI agent, he got here nearer than anybody else to heading off the 9/11 assaults. Now, Soufan leads his personal safety consulting company, the place he facilitates delicate hostage negotiations overseas.
In between flights to the Middle East, Soufan spoke with Vanity Fair about the whole lot from the character of Syria’s victorious insurgent group (“They continue to be a terrorist organization until they prove otherwise”), to how a lot energy Marco Rubio could possess as Trump’s secretary of state (“I believe everything is going to be run directly by the White House”), to the broader conflicts escalating all all through the Middle East. “There’s a lot of things happening now,” Soufan says, in a serious understatement. “The situation in the region is really scary.”
Vanity Fair: No one may have predicted precisely how issues would unfold throughout the previous yr. But you’re an knowledgeable within the area. Have any of the ramifications shocked even you?
Ali Soufan: We all the time knew that one thing large was going to occur in Syria after October 7 and after the weakening of Iran’s key proxy, Hezbollah, in Lebanon. Turkey has moved swiftly to fill the vacuum left by Tehran and to broaden its affect. But I don’t assume even the Turks believed that the Assad regime would collapse this quick.
The Israeli hostages stay an unlimited problem. On Monday president-elect Donald Trump threatened Hamas, saying “all hell will break out” if the hostages will not be launched by January 20. Is that useful, or is he posturing in case they’re launched sooner, so Trump can declare credit score for scaring them right into a deal?
I believe that it’s solely discuss, and I believe it’s coming from the truth that the scenario is perhaps solved earlier than he takes workplace. The head of the CIA went to Qatar [on Wednesday]. What Trump says doesn’t impression a lot what’s going on within the negotiations. If you’re Hamas, what else can occur? The scenario in Gaza is a complete mess. They’re already dwelling within the deepest degree of hell. I’ve a optimistic feeling in regards to the consequence of the negotiations this time.
Yet even when that a part of the troubles is resolved, Trump can be coping with a deeply risky area. You have labored in counterterrorism for a very long time. Where are the best dangers from the brand new instability?
I believe Turkey will do some form of army operation in opposition to the Kurds [in northern Syria], as a result of they contemplate the Syrian Democratic Forces, that are led by the Kurds, to be a terrorist group on the Turkish border. If Turkey’s operation is profitable, what’s going to occur to the a whole bunch of ISIS fighters which might be in Kurdish custody? It may very well be just like what occurred in Iraq, when ISIS declared an Islamic state. The scenario could be very harmful not just for Syria, but in addition for Turkey and the worldwide group, together with the United States.
Trump constantly talks like an isolationist, about taking good care of America and leaving different nations alone to kind themselves out.