I’m as responsible as anybody else of turning the NHL into “How The Maple Leafs Turn.”You spend sufficient time commenting on how everybody’s all the time commenting on the Leafs, and nicely, you’re then a part of the issue. But each time the Leafs do one thing, it’s usually inflicting some kind of ripple given their outsized relevance to the league.
And what they’re doing now could be sending everybody within the GTA into hysterics as soon as once more, regardless that it’s October. That “October” half could sound ridiculous, and in some methods it’s, however the best way the NHL and its playoff system works is that you simply’d higher be in a playoff spot within the subsequent few weeks or it will get awfully difficult to elbow your approach in from the surface. With the Bruins not having any fall-off so removed from their traditional excessive commonplace, and the Sabres and Wings wanting a minimum of spikier than they did final season, the Atlantic Division is just not a spot you need to be crawling again from the outer rim in.
So the Leafs simply had a Western swing by which they drew an 0-fer. Lost in Vegas. Lost in San Jose. Lost the SoCal back-to-back. They’ve performed 10 video games, greater than all however two groups within the East. And going by points-percentage, they’re on the ass-end of the division and solely have Columbus beat within the convention. Not precisely to the usual that Leafs Nation calls for, is it? 4-4-2 is just not a tempo that’s going to get them anyplace, clearly.
The Leafs’ points had been apparent earlier than the season began. One, they had been relying on Matt Murray to not simply be good, however to have the ability to rise up for greater than 11 consecutive minutes. This is Matt Murray we’re speaking about, so naturally he’s solely performed one recreation thus far this season and continues to be out for a while but. This is what the Leafs signed up for by selecting Murray to be their man. And that alternative and the following and totally predictable harm absence is why they needed to flip some begins over to Eric Kallgren, who is just not an NHL goalie. He’s been crushed in all three of his begins, all losses (although two in OT). Normal backup Ilya Samsonov has been wonderful to good, however he clearly can’t play each recreation.
The different drawback, and it’s been the issue for the Leafs for years now, is that their backside six simply isn’t good. It’s arduous for it to be given all the cash tied up within the high six, however that is acute. David Kampf, Nic Robertson, Calle Järnkrok, Zach Aston-Reese, and Nicolas Aube-Kubel are all operating sub-50 p.c Corsi rankings and anticipated targets shares.
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Now to be honest to those guys, that’s kind of the job on the Leafs’ backside six forwards. The offensive zone begins principally go to the tricked-out high two strains to attain, and the underside six has to shovel the shit. But somebody right here has to show the ice over, and nobody is. This is the place Kyle “Rivers” Dubas has actually failed the Leafs, in that with the sporadic draft picks he’s had he hasn’t discovered anybody who can fill out the underside six roles for minimal salaries that may purchase them extra room from what they’re spending on their largest toys.
Some of the Leafs’ issues weren’t all that foreseeable, although. The fundamental one being that John Tavares’ line has been woeful defensively. Yes, Tavares is main the workforce in scoring, although seven of his 10 factors have come on the ability play. At even-strength, regardless that Tavares’ line begins 62 p.c of his shifts within the offensive zone, his attempts-share and anticipated targets share is beneath water. Tavares’ particular person metrics — anticipated targets, makes an attempt per recreation, and scoring possibilities per recreation — are all of the lowest they’ve been since he arrived in Toronto. He hasn’t scored at even power but this yr.
Another drawback, although one which will likely be shortly solved, is that Auston Matthews can’t drop a puck onto a public park in the mean time. Matthews is just taking pictures six p.c, some 10 factors beneath his profession common. The excellent news is that he’s averaging the very best mark in his profession in photographs, possibilities, and anticipated targets per recreation of his profession, so there nearly actually will likely be an explosion of targets very quickly. Had he hit simply his profession mark in taking pictures share, he’d have three or 4 extra targets already, which most likely would have resulted in two or three extra factors for the Leafs someplace.
The penalty kill is one other space of concern, although how that can go is somewhat arduous to inform. The precise construction of the PK is okay, because the Leafs are 4th within the league in expected-goals in opposition to whereas a person brief. But in addition they have the fourth-worst save share whereas on the kill, which is the most important cause why they’ve the Twenty third-ranked penalty kill. Will Murray’s return assure that can get higher? That’s dicey.
The Leafs could also be hoping a return dwelling will resolve most of every part, however that’s dicey as nicely. In November, they’ll see the Penguins 3 times, the Devils twice, the Bruins, the Canes, the Knights, Sabres, and Wings. None of these groups are pushovers, and even when the Leafs do nicely, how a lot floor will they make up? Basically for the whole thing of the cap period, 75 p.c of the groups which are in playoff spots at Thanksgiving keep there. You can are available from the chilly, however given the depth of the Atlantic, the Leafs aren’t going to need to should blaze by means of the final two months of the season, say, whereas enjoying most of their video games in a division the place everyone seems to be a minimum of serviceable. There are not any simple nights.
Still, Murray, when he returns, is an enchancment on Kallgren, no matter he may really be. Matthews goes to attain a ton of targets someday quickly. While fingers are all the time pointed on the protection, and it may not have a Makar or Josi, it’s principally been good. They have to get Justin Holl pointed in the suitable approach or discover a substitute, however having one faulty cog out of six isn’t the worst place to be. Things will flip round.
Probably in time for them to lose within the first spherical once more. That’s the place the actual enjoyable is.